变分模态分解与Optuna自适应寻优的Transformer-LSTM短期水流量预测
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1.南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院;2.南京信息工程大学集成电路学院

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TP399

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国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1804704)


Variational Mode Decomposition and Optuna Adaptive Optimization for Transformer-LSTM Short-Term Water Flow Prediction
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1.School of Electronic and Information Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.School of Integrated Circuits,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    河流流量短期预测为预防极端水文事件及水资源规划管理提供关键时间窗口和决策支持,针对单一长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)模型难以捕捉局部特征、对超参数敏感问题,提出了一种融合Transformer、LSTM及点积注意力(DotProductAttention)机制的水流量预测模型。利用变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)对数据集进行预处理,利用Optuna优化(optuna optimization,OP)算法实现超参数寻优,构建耦合模型Op-Transformer-LSTM-Att。以美国密西西比河位于伊利诺伊州的切斯特站点为实例,对比多种模型的流量预测精度,结果表明:融合模型比传统LSTM在均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)和平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)分别减少了53.7%和46.55%,且决定系数(R2)达到0.9892,预测精度优于未融合及其他算法模型。

    Abstract:

    Short-term river flow prediction provides a critical time window and decision support for preventing extreme hydrological events and water resource planning management. Due to the problems such as difficulty in capturing local features, sensitivity to hyperparameters, and poor prediction performance of the single long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a water flow prediction model integrating Transformer, LSTM, and pointwise attention mechanism is proposed. The data set is preprocessed using variational mode decomposition (VMD), and the hyperparameters are tuned using the Optuna optimization (OP) algorithm. A coupled model OP-Transformer-LSTM-Att is constructed. Taking the Chester site on the Mississippi River in Illinois, USA, as an example, the flow prediction accuracy of various models is compared and evaluated. The results show that the integrated model proposed in this paper reduces 53.7% and 46.55% in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) respectively compared with the traditional LSTM, and has the highest coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9892. The prediction effect is significantly better than the non-integrated models and other algorithm models.

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刘恒,沈鹏,万开运,等. 变分模态分解与Optuna自适应寻优的Transformer-LSTM短期水流量预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-08
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-03
  • 录用日期:2026-08-01
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