基于图卷积网络和双向LSTM的多负荷同时预测
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作者单位:

1.河北农业大学;2.北京信息科技大学

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TM714、TP3-05

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Simultaneous Multi-load Forecasting Based on Graph Convolutional Networks and Bidirectional LSTM
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1.Hebei Agricultural University;2.Beijing Information Science and Technology University

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    摘要:

    为应对电力负荷高度非线性及剧烈波动引发的预测难题,提出一种集成K-shape拓扑重构与GCN-BiLSTM-Attention的时空协同建模架构。该方案通过Savitzky-Golay滤波预处理,并引入K-shape聚类算法刻画负荷曲线形态相似度,从而构建能够反映异构节点间空间耦合关系的特征矩阵;随后利用图卷积网络捕获负荷节点间的空间关联特征,并结合引入自注意力机制的双向长短期记忆网络,协同提取时空维度的深层演化规律。实验结果表明,经贝叶斯参数优化后,该模型在UC Irvine数据集上实现了0.67%的平均绝对百分比误差,在预测精度与稳健性方面较基准模型实现了显著提升。

    Abstract:

    To address the forecasting challenges caused by high nonlinearity and drastic fluctuations in power loads, a spatiotemporal collaborative modeling architecture integrating K-shape topology reconstruction and GCN-BiLSTM-Attention is proposed.Savitzky-Golay filtering was applied for data preprocessing. The K-shape clustering algorithm was introduced to characterize the morphological similarity of load curves. A feature matrix reflecting the spatial coupling relationship between heterogeneous nodes was constructed. Spatial correlation features among load nodes were captured by Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN). Deep spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns were extracted through a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network coupled with a self-attention mechanism.Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.67% on the UC Irvine dataset after Bayesian optimization. The proposed model yields significant improvements in forecasting accuracy and robustness compared with baseline models.

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张天颖,董伟杰,张立梅,等. 基于图卷积网络和双向LSTM的多负荷同时预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2026-04-29
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-25
  • 录用日期:2026-07-27
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