基于自适应信号分解与混合深度网络的微震能量概率区间预测
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北京科技大学 资源与安全工程学院

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TD853

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“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC2905003)


Probabilistic Interval Prediction of Microseismic Energy Based on Adaptive Signal Decomposition and Hybrid Deep Network
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School of Resources and Safety Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing

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    摘要:

    针对深部矿山微震能量序列非平稳性强、突发性明显以及传统点预测方法难以量化不确定性的问题,提出一种基于改进的自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(ICEEMDAN)与TCN-BiLSTM-Attention混合深度网络的微震能量概率区间预测方法。以某深部金属矿山微震监测数据为研究对象,选取微震能量、地震矩、视应力及事件时间间隔作为原始输入特征,并对微震能量序列进行ICEEMDAN多尺度分解,将所得本征模态分量与原始震源参数融合构建输入特征矩阵。模型采用时间卷积网络提取局部时序特征,利用双向长短期记忆网络捕获双向时序依赖关系,并结合多头自注意力机制增强对关键历史时步和重要特征的自适应表征;同时以高斯分布刻画预测输出,基于连续排秩概率分数(CRPS)进行训练,实现微震能量的点预测与概率区间预测。结果表明:该模型在测试集上取得较高预测精度,决定系数R2为0.926,95%预测区间覆盖率为0.863,平均区间宽度为2.195,表现出较好的区间预测能力与不确定性刻画能力。进一步分析发现,模型输出的预测标准差与高能极端事件具有显著对应关系,可为动力灾害早期预警提供概率层面的辅助依据。可解释性分析表明,ICEEMDAN分解得到的高频模态分量对模型预测贡献最大,多头注意力机制能够有效聚焦关键时步信息。研究结果可为深部矿山微震监测预警与动力灾害智能防控提供概率化决策参考。

    Abstract:

    To address the strong non-stationarity, pronounced abruptness, and limited uncertainty quantification of traditional point prediction methods for microseismic energy series in deep mines, a probabilistic interval prediction method for microseismic energy was proposed based on Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) and a hybrid TCN-BiLSTM-Attention network. Microseismic monitoring data collected from a deep metal mine were used for model validation. Microseismic energy, seismic moment, apparent stress, and inter-event time interval were selected as the original input features. The microseismic energy series was decomposed into multi-scale components by ICEEMDAN, and the obtained intrinsic mode function components were fused with the original source parameters to construct the input feature matrix. Local temporal features were extracted using a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), bidirectional temporal dependencies were captured using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (BiLSTM), and the adaptive representation of critical historical time steps and important features was enhanced by a multi-head self-attention mechanism. Meanwhile, the predictive output was characterized by a Gaussian distribution, and the model was trained using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), thereby enabling both point prediction and probabilistic interval prediction of microseismic energy. The results show that the proposed model achieved high prediction accuracy on the test set, with an R2 of 0.926, a 95% prediction interval coverage probability of 0.863, and a mean prediction interval width of 2.195, indicating favorable interval prediction performance and uncertainty characterization capability. Further analysis showed that the predicted standard deviation output by the model was significantly associated with high-energy extreme events, which could provide probabilistic support for the early warning of dynamic disasters. The interpretability analysis indicated that the high-frequency components obtained by ICEEMDAN made the greatest contribution to model prediction, and that the multi-head self-attention mechanism could effectively focus on critical temporal information. The results provide a probabilistic decision-making reference for microseismic monitoring, early warning, and intelligent prevention and control of dynamic disasters in deep mines.

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夏文浩,冯健新,杜翠凤,等. 基于自适应信号分解与混合深度网络的微震能量概率区间预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-29
  • 录用日期:2026-07-27
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