融合实测数据的强震海啸近岸波高机器学习预测模型
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中国地震局工程力学研究所

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315.9

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中国地震局工程力学研究所科学研究基金(2023A01),国家自然科学基金(52378544)


A Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model for Nearshore Tsunami Wave Heights of Strong Earthquakes
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Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration

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    摘要:

    准确的海啸近岸波高预测是实现灾害风险快速定量评估的核心,对完善全球沿海防灾减灾体系、降低极端海洋灾害损失具有重要意义。现有的海啸预警评估主要依赖以COMCOT为代表的数值模拟工具,这类工具通过求解浅水方程,可在有限的预警时间内快速评估强震海啸的近岸影响。然而,受限于断层滑移破裂的简化、底摩擦及下垫面空间异质性刻画精度不足等因素,其结果往往存在显著偏差。为此,本研究基于历史海啸观测数据与模拟数据,构建了包含全球33次强震海啸事件的数据集;并提出一种以模拟结果为基线,融合震源参数、调查点至断层空间距离以及局地地形等多源特征的XGBoost近岸最大海啸波高预测模型。结果表明,所提模型能有效消除原始数值模拟的偏差,海啸近岸波高预测值与实际值的相关系数高达0.91。相比于原始模拟结果,该模型的平均绝对误差从5.67 m降至1.40 m,均方根误差从8.13 m降至2.45 m。在2010年智利海啸事件的独立泛化验证中,模型展现出稳定的泛化性能。该方法可在不显著增加计算成本的前提下提升近岸预测精度,为全球海啸预警提供了一条兼顾时效性与准确性的路径。

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of nearshore tsunami wave heights is essential for the rapid quantitative assessment of disaster risk and is of great significance for improving coastal disaster prevention and mitigation systems and reducing losses caused by extreme marine disasters. Current tsunami warning assessments mainly rely on numerical simulation tools such as the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). By solving the shallow water equations, these tools can rapidly evaluate the nearshore impacts of strong tsunamis generated by large earthquakes within the limited warning time available. However, due to the simplified representation of fault slip and rupture processes, as well as the insufficient characterization of bottom friction, seabed roughness, and spatial heterogeneity in nearshore bathymetry, significant biases are often observed in the simulation results. Therefore, a dataset covering 33 major tsunami events worldwide was constructed based on historical tsunami observation data and numerical simulation results. Furthermore, an XGBoost-based prediction model for maximum nearshore tsunami wave heights was developed. In the proposed model, the numerical simulation results were used as the baseline, and multi-source features, including seismic source parameters, the distance between survey points and faults, and geographic information, were integrated. The results showed that the proposed model effectively reduced the bias in the original numerical simulations, with a high correlation coefficient of 0.91 between the predicted and observed nearshore tsunami wave heights. Compared with the original simulation results, the mean absolute error was reduced from 5.67 m to 1.40 m, and the root mean square error was reduced from 8.13 m to 2.45 m. In the independent validation using the 2010 Chile tsunami event, stable generalization capability was demonstrated by the proposed model. The proposed method can significantly improve the accuracy of nearshore tsunami wave height prediction without additional computational cost, thereby providing a promising approach for balancing timeliness and accuracy in global tsunami early warning systems.

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辛虹利,王自法,赵登科,等. 融合实测数据的强震海啸近岸波高机器学习预测模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2026-03-16
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-03
  • 录用日期:2026-05-10
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