高强采动诱发强矿压前兆信息识别与失稳概率预测模型
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1.神东煤炭集团布尔台煤矿;2.重庆大学;3.国能神东布尔台煤矿

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TU45

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52474093);国家重点研发计划(青年科学家项目),2021YFC2900400;


Precursor identification and instability probability prediction for strong mining pressure under high-intensity mining
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1.Shendong Coal Group Buertai Colliery;2.chongqing university

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    摘要:

    针对高强采动下强矿压诱发机制复杂、前兆信息微弱且难以识别的难题,提出一种基于“能量非稳态积聚-系统结构降维有序化”耦合演化机理的强矿压失稳概率预测方法。首先,利用奇异谱分析(SSA)与 Wigner-Ville 分布(WVD)捕捉能量非稳态释放的时频特征,并基于递归图(RP)拓扑分析量化岩体破裂系统从无序向有序转化的动力学熵变,构建了表征强矿压孕育过程的时空-动力学前兆指标体系。其次,基于Logistic回归验证了上述物理指标对失稳风险的显著指示作用。基于该物理机理的先验指导,旨在将物理归纳偏置转化为网络架构的内生约束,构建了嵌入通道注意力机制的改进型一维卷积神经网络(1D-CNN)。该模型利用物理感知注意力自适应重标定特征权重,实现了对关键致灾频段与动力学模态的流形解耦与提取。结果表明:该方法揭示了频率重心负漂移与递归熵降低的临界失稳特征;通过与LSTM、GRU等主流深度学习模型及SVM传统机器学习模型进行对比测试,验证了改进型1D-CNN在特征捕获与时效性上的优势。模型总体准确率达到92.2%;针对测试集中的强矿压样本,实现100%正确识别,平均预警时间为68.7±12.5分钟。研究成果为矿山动力灾害的实时分级预警提供了新的理论工具与技术途径。

    Abstract:

    Mechanisms of strong mining pressure under high-intensity mining are complex, and precursors are often weak. To address this, an instability probability prediction method is proposed. This method is based on the coupled evolution mechanism of "unsteady energy accumulation" and "system structural ordering." First, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) are used to capture time-frequency characteristics of unsteady energy release. Recurrence Plot (RP) analysis quantifies dynamic entropy changes during the rock system''s transition from disorder to order. A spatiotemporal-dynamic precursor indicator system is thus constructed. Second, Logistic regression validates the significant predictive capability of these physical indicators. Guided by these mechanisms, an improved 1D Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) with a channel attention mechanism is developed. This architecture translates physical inductive bias into endogenous network constraints. By employing physics-aware attention to adaptively recalibrate feature weights, the model achieves manifold decoupling and precise extraction of critical frequency bands and dynamic modes. Results reveal distinct instability signatures: a negative shift in frequency centroid and a drop in recurrence entropy. Comparative tests against LSTM, GRU, and SVM confirm the improved 1D-CNN''s significant advantages in feature capture and efficiency. The model achieves an overall accuracy of 92.2%. It correctly identifies 100% of strong mining pressure events, providing an average warning time of 68.7±12.5 minutes. This work offers a novel theoretical and technical approach for real-time, graded early warning of dynamic mining hazards.

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胡江,史开文,曹军,等. 高强采动诱发强矿压前兆信息识别与失稳概率预测模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-05
  • 录用日期:2026-07-27
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