洪水冲刷与流水扰动耦合作用下桥梁洪灾易损性预测研究
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作者单位:

1.山东大学土建与水利学院;2.山东高速股份有限公司

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U446

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2022年度交通运输行业重点科技项目(2022-ZD6-080);山东省交通运输科技计划(2022B79)


Prediction of Bridge Flood Vulnerability under the Coupled Effects of Scour and Hydraulic Disturbance
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1.School of Civil Engineering,Shandong University;2.Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited

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    摘要:

    为研究洪水综合作用下桥梁结构的多灾害易损性,以某高墩桥梁为研究对象,基于有限元数值计算结果建立高斯回归代理模型,结合蒙特卡洛法与拉丁超立方取样实现多维交叉随机分析。引入分别表征流水扰动与洪水冲刷的流水增幅系数λc和冲刷深度预测公式,系统评估不同洪水强度组合下桥梁的失效概率变化规律。结果表明,流水作用会显著提高各失效模式下的失效概率,均值5%的流速增幅即可引起最大8.3%的概率提升;动态冲刷过程使洪水强度阈值降低超过30%,高流速浅水工况下桥梁更易发生失效。进一步考虑冲刷条件下的船舶碰撞作用,以碰撞时船速为强度指标(IM)构建了易损性曲线。分析结果显示,冲刷深度增大导致曲线整体左移,结构抗冲击能力明显降低;在相同船速下,冲刷深度由2cm增至8cm时,中等损伤失效概率由0.028升至0.442。随着船重增加,失效概率进一步升高,表明冲刷效应在船撞工况下具有显著放大作用。研究揭示了洪水、冲刷与船撞耦合作用下桥梁性能退化的机理,为极端水文环境下的桥梁风险评估与分级防护设计提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    This study investigates the multi-hazard vulnerability of a high-pier bridge under combined flood effects. A Gaussian regression surrogate model was developed based on finite element (FE) simulations, and multidimensional stochastic analyses were performed using Monte Carlo and Latin hypercube sampling methods. The flow amplification factor (λ), representing hydraulic disturbance, and a scour depth prediction model were introduced to evaluate the variation of bridge failure probability under different flood intensities.Results show that hydraulic actions significantly increase the failure probability across multiple failure modes. An average 5% increase in flow velocity leads to a maximum rise of 8.3% in failure probability, while the dynamic scour process reduces the flood intensity threshold by over 30%. These findings indicate that bridges are more prone to failure under high-velocity and shallow-water conditions. Furthermore, the influence of vessel collision under scour conditions was examined using fragility curves with vessel velocity as the intensity measure (IM). Increasing scour depth shifts the curves leftward, reducing structural impact resistance; when the scour depth increases from 2 cm to 8 cm, the probability of moderate damage rises from 0.028 to 0.442.This study elucidates the coupled effects of flood, scour, and vessel collision on bridge performance, providing a scientific basis for vulnerability assessment and risk-informed design under extreme hydraulic conditions.

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杨则英,薛洪野,房晨晨,等. 洪水冲刷与流水扰动耦合作用下桥梁洪灾易损性预测研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-30
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-02
  • 录用日期:2026-05-10
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