有限样本条件下石油石化行业突发事件应急处置决策方法
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1.中国石油油气和新能源分公司;2.中国科学技术大学火灾安全全国重点实验室;3.中国石油大学北京自动化系

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TE38

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国家自然科学基金(22178383,21706282)


OPTIMIZATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE DECISION-MAKINNG METHOD FOR PETROLEUM AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY EMERGENCIES UNDER LIMITED SAMPLE CONDITIONSYu Tao1, Zhang Jin-ming,2,3, Wu Hui-zu4, Chen Qian4, Li Ying-tao4, LI Wen-shuo4, GAO Xiao-yong4,5*
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1.Petrochina oil ,Gas&2.New Energies Company;3.State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China;4.Department of Automation, China University of Petroleum(Beijing)

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    摘要:

    石油石化领域的突发事件具有高度不确定性和复杂性,在有限样本与高复杂度条件下,传统应急决策方法在方案生成与优化方面存在局限。为此,提出了一种基于构建信息的改进案例推理(Case-Based Reasoning, CBR)决策方法。该方法通过构建应急方案案例库,融合多源异构信息,采用主客观权重计算评估相似度,实现应急方案与实际案例的合理匹配。针对突发事件的不确定性,引入动态优化与机制化优选策略,并结合K邻近(K-Nearest Neighbor, KNN)算法对方案结果进行分析,以提高决策的精准性与适应性。通过对17个典型应急方案的仿真测试,验证了该方法在复杂应急管理场景中的有效性。研究结果为石油石化行业突发事件的应急管理提供了一种可行的技术路径。

    Abstract:

    Emergencies in the petroleum and petrochemical industry often occur under uncertain and complex conditions, and the scarcity of reliable data limits the usefulness of conventional decision-making tools. In this work, an improved Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method is developed using structured descriptions of incident information. The method builds an emergency case library, brings together heterogeneous data, and evaluates similarity through a weighting scheme that combines expert input with objective measures. A dynamic adjustment step is introduced to account for shifts in on-site conditions, and the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm is applied to narrow down the recommended response plans. Tests on 17 emergency cases indicate that the method can maintain stable performance in demanding scenarios. These results suggest that the approach offers a practical option for supporting emergency decision-making in the petroleum and petrochemical field.

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于涛,张金明,吴惠祖,等. 有限样本条件下石油石化行业突发事件应急处置决策方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-28
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-27
  • 录用日期:2026-05-10
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