基于GA-SVM与CRF的烃源岩总有机碳含量三维定量预测方法
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1.中海油田服务股份有限公司;2.河海大学地球科学与工程学院;3.中海油田服务股份有限公司油田技术事业部;4.河海大学

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P631

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国家科技重大专项课题(2025ZD1401105);国家自然科学基金(41674113)


Three-Dimensional Quantitative Prediction Method for TOC Content based on GA-SVM and CRF
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1.CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited;2.School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Hohai University;3.CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited Oilfield Technology Division;4.Hohai University

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    摘要:

    实现烃源岩TOC含量在三维空间连续分布的精准预测,对于确定盆地的生烃能力,寻找有利勘探目标具有重要的价值。为实现上述目标,本文首先采用支持向量机算法进行TOC含量测井表征,通过建立岩心TOC测量值与测井曲线之间的非线性关系,采用遗传算法优化支持向量机(GA-SVM)模型计算得到TOC测井曲线。GA-SVM算法预测结果与岩心TOC对比吻合良好,验证了模型的预测精度,同时与传统的法及多元线性回归算法的预测结果进行了对比,更高的预测精度表明了GA-SVM方法的先进性。其次采用级联随机森林(CRF)算法进行烃源岩TOC含量三维定量预测,优选多种地震属性作为输入参数,以GA-SVM算法预测的TOC曲线经重采样及滤波处理后作为输出参数,通过级联森林的特征增强分类判别得到三维定量TOC预测结果。CRF算法预测结果、GA-SVM算法预测结果以及岩心实测TOC数据,三者在井位置吻合较好,表明CRF算法进行三维TOC含量定量预测具有较好的准确性和稳定性。通过GA-SVM和CRF两种机器学习算法组合,实现了烃源岩TOC含量从一维到三维的高精度定量预测。

    Abstract:

    Achieving precise prediction of TOC content in hydrocarbon source rocks across three-dimensional space holds significant value for determining basin hydrocarbon generation potential and identifying favorable exploration targets. To achieve this objective, this study first employs a Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for TOC logging characterization. By establishing a nonlinear relationship between core TOC measurements and logging curves, a Genetic Algorithm-optimized Support Vector Machine (GA-SVM) model is utilized to compute TOC logging curves. The GA-SVM algorithm demonstrated excellent agreement with core TOC measurements, validating its predictive accuracy. Comparisons with traditional methods and multiple linear regression algorithms revealed superior prediction precision, highlighting the advanced nature of the GA-SVM approach. Second, Cascade Random Forest (CRF) algorithm was employed for three-dimensional quantitative prediction of hydrocarbon source rock TOC content. Multiple seismic attributes were selected as input parameters, while the TOC curve predicted by the GA-SVM algorithm—after resampling and filtering—served as the output parameter. Three-dimensional quantitative TOC predictions were obtained through feature enhancement classification using the cascaded forest. The CRF algorithm predictions, GA-SVM predictions, and measured core TOC data showed good agreement at well locations, indicating the random forest algorithm"s high accuracy and stability for three-dimensional TOC content quantification. By combining GA-SVM and CRF machine learning algorithms, this study achieved high-precision quantitative prediction of hydrocarbon source rock TOC content from one to three dimensions.

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肖为,祝新益,魏哲,等. 基于GA-SVM与CRF的烃源岩总有机碳含量三维定量预测方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-26
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-07
  • 录用日期:2026-07-31
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