基于AVMD-LSTM-Attention的太阳辐照预测
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兰州交通大学

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TM615

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科技部重点专项(No.SQ2020YFF0413296);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(26JRRA573);兰州市科技发展计划项目 (No.2023-3-96);


Solar Radiation Prediction Based on AVMD-LSTM-Attention
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Lanzhou Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    在西北太阳高辐照地区,DNI波动引起塔式光热发电系统(Solar Power Tower,SPT)吸热器的瞬态热冲击效应,进而影响吸热器安全及寿命。精确的DNI数据可作为关键的前馈信号,为SPT系统的瞄准策略调控提供决策依据。本文提出一种结合自适应变分模态分解(AVMD)、长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory ,LSTM)与多头注意力机制(Multi-Head Attention)的混合预测模型,AVMD-LSTM-Attention模型。首先,利用AVMD对原始DNI序列进行自适应分解,降低序列的非平稳性;然后,利用LSTM深度挖掘各分量长距离时序演化规律,引入注意力机制计算隐藏层状态权重,强化模型对信息的聚焦能力并抑制噪声干扰,最后将各分量预测结果叠加得到最终预测结果。该方法实现了DNI的高精度预测,为SPT系统定日镜场的调控策略提供了可靠的数据支撑,实现SPT系统的光热耦合调控的协同优化。

    Abstract:

    In high solar irradiance regions of Northwest China, fluctuations in Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) induce transient thermal shock effects on the receiver of Solar Power Tower (SPT) systems, thereby impairing the operational safety and service lifetime of the receiver. A robust decision-making basis for the regulation of aiming strategies in SPT systems is provided by high-precision DNI data, which functions as a critical feedforward signal. In this study, a hybrid prediction model (termed AVMD-LSTM-Attention) is proposed, which integrates Adaptive Variational Mode Decomposition (AVMD), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and the Multi-Head Attention mechanism. Specifically, the original DNI time series is first adaptively decomposed via AVMD to mitigate the non-stationarity of the series. Subsequently, the LSTM network is employed to deeply capture the long-range temporal evolution characteristics of each decomposed component, while the Attention mechanism is incorporated to calculate the weights of hidden layer states—this enhances the model’s capacity to focus on critical information and suppresses noise interference effectively. Finally, the prediction results of all components are aggregated to yield the final DNI prediction output. This proposed method achieves high-precision DNI prediction, furnishing reliable data support for the control strategy of the heliostat field in SPT systems and enabling the collaborative optimization of solar-thermal coupling control for SPT systems.

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引用本文

高博,洪坤鹏,唐世杰. 基于AVMD-LSTM-Attention的太阳辐照预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-27
  • 录用日期:2026-05-09
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