黄土高原野火危险性时空分异及其生态风险评估
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S762; X43

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四川省科技计划项目(2024YFFK0111);应急管理部四川消防研究所项目(20248815Z);四川重大科技专项揭榜挂帅项目(2025YFNH0008)


Assessment of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in wildfire hazard and ecological risk on the Loess Plateau
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    摘要:

    黄土高原作为我国典型的生态脆弱区,受气候变化与人类活动叠加影响,野火风险日益复杂且呈增强态势。识别野火危险性的时空特征并评估其潜在生态影响,对区域生态安全与火灾防控具有重要意义。本研究基于2001—2024年多时期野火数据,系统分析野火活动的时序演变规律,采用机器学习算法构建野火危险性模型,并耦合生态系统服务价值(ESV)开展生态风险评估。结果表明:野火危险性呈现显著时空分异性,夏、秋季及非防火期野火活动呈显著增长趋势,揭示了传统防火期外火险压力日益增大的新特征;春、冬季及防火期的高危险区分布范围更广,呈连续带状分布。危险性因子的驱动机制在不同时期存在差异,明确了气象、植被与人类活动贡献的季节变化规律。ESV空间分布呈东南高、西北低的梯度格局,春、冬季及防火期是生态风险管控的关键时期,其高风险区域连续性高,预期ESV损失显著高于其他时期。研究结果可为黄土高原地区制定时空差异化防火策略与维护生态安全提供科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    The Loess Plateau, a typical ecologically fragile region in China, is increasingly facing complex and intensified wildfire risks due to the combined impacts of climate change and human activities. Identifying the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire hazard and assessing its potential ecological impacts are crucial for regional ecological security and fire prevention. Utilizing multi-period wildfire data from 2001 to 2024, this study systematically analyzed the temporal evolution of wildfire activity. A machine learning algorithm was employed to construct wildfire hazard models, which were then coupled with Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) to conduct an ecological risk assessment. The results revealed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in wildfire hazard, with notable increasing trends observed during summer, autumn, and the non-fire prevention season, highlighting a newly identified characteristic of escalating fire risk outside the traditional fire prevention period. High-hazard zones were more extensive and exhibited continuous belt-like distributions in spring, winter, and the fire prevention season. The driving mechanisms of hazard factors varied across periods, clarifying the seasonal shift in the contributions of meteorology, vegetation, and human activities. The spatial distribution of ESV exhibited a gradient pattern, with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. Spring, winter, and the fire prevention period were identified as critical phases for ecological risk management, characterized by highly continuous high-risk areas and significantly higher projected ESV losses compared to other periods. The findings provide scientific support for developing spatiotemporally differentiated fire prevention strategies and for maintaining ecological security in the Loess Plateau.

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岳韦霆,高云骥,向中意,等. 黄土高原野火危险性时空分异及其生态风险评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(26): 11212-11225.
Yue Weiting, Gao Yunji, Xiang Zhongyi, et al. Assessment of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in wildfire hazard and ecological risk on the Loess Plateau[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(26):11212-11225.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-14
  • 录用日期:2026-03-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-29
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