考虑级联失效及状态演化的路网脆弱性评估
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1.兰州交通大学交通运输学院;2.兰州交通大学经济与管理学院

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U491

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国家自然科学基金项目(72261026)


Vulnerability Assessment of Road Networks Considering Cascading Failures and State Evolution
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1.School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University;2.School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    为更准确评估突发事件下城市道路网络的脆弱性,针对传统级联失效模型难以刻画路段的渐进演化过程,且流量重分配方法难以反映驾驶人实际路径选择行为的问题,本文基于级联失效理论展开研究。首先,构建城市双层网络模型,在传统负载-容量模型中引入过载状态,建立了包含正常、失效和过载的三状态级联失效模型,以更真实地反映道路网络在突发事件下的响应过程,并提出基于替代路径成本的过载路段OD (origin-destination)重构策略,模拟驾驶人在面对拥堵时的实际决策行为;其次,构建了包括系统平均行程时间、需求加权网络运行效率、OD需求损失和失效路段造成的路段过载次数在内的脆弱性量化评价指标体系;最后,以安徽省宣城市区域道路网络为例进行仿真分析。结果表明,考虑路段过载状态后,模型能够有效刻画路段由正常运行向失效状态的演化过程,避免二元模型对失效范围的高估;同时,基于替代路径成本的OD重构策略能够显著降低需求损失,提升模型对实际交通行为的表征能力。研究表明,本文所构建的三状态级联失效模型能够更真实地描述突发事件下路网状态的演化过程,为关键路段的识别和交通应急疏导提供决策依据。

    Abstract:

    To more accurately evaluate the vulnerability of urban road networks under disruptive events, aiming at the problems that the progressive evolution of links is difficult to be characterized by traditional cascading failure models and drivers'' actual route choice behaviors are difficult to be reflected by traffic reallocation methods, a study is conducted based on cascading failure theory. First, a bi-layer urban network model is constructed. On the basis of the traditional load–capacity model, an overload state is introduced to establish a three-state cascading failure model comprising normal, overloaded, and failed states, through which the response process of the road network under disruptions can be more realistically reflected. In addition, an origin-destination (OD) reconstruction strategy for overloaded links based on alternative path cost is proposed, by which drivers’ actual decision-making behaviors when facing congestion are simulated. Subsequently, a vulnerability evaluation index system is developed, including average system travel time, demand-weighted network efficiency, OD demand loss, and the number of overload occurrences caused by failed links. Finally, a simulation analysis is conducted taking the regional road network of Xuancheng City, Anhui Province, as a case study. It is indicated by the results that, after the overloaded state is considered, the model is capable of capturing the transition process of links from normal operation to failure, thereby avoiding the overestimation of failure range inherent in traditional binary models. Meanwhile, the OD reconstruction strategy based on alternative path cost is shown to significantly reduce demand loss, whereby the model''s capability to represent actual traffic behaviors is substantially enhanced. It is demonstrated that the proposed three-state cascading failure model can more realistically describe the dynamic evolution of road network states under disruptive events, and can provide a basis for critical link identification and emergency traffic management.

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梁瑾,高明霞,莫俊文. 考虑级联失效及状态演化的路网脆弱性评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-09
  • 录用日期:2026-07-27
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