The Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration, as the largest economic region and the most urbanized area in Jiangxi Province, has a profound impact on the province"s ecological security and sustainable development due to its land use/cover changes. Scientifically analyzing its patterns and predicting future trends is of great significance for urban development and optimizing the spatial layout of the province. Land use data from the years 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023 was utilized, and the analysis of land use spatial-temporal changes in the study area was conducted using methodologies such as the land use transition matrix, dynamic degree, and standard deviation ellipse. The PLUS model was used to forecast spatial land use patterns in 2028. The research findings indicated that the land use types in the Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration were primarily composed of farmland and forest land, with significant land use conversions occurring between different land types.From 2003 to 2023, The single dynamics of cultivated land and construction land in the study area were positive, while the dynamics of other land types were negative. In general, land use changes were relatively stable throughout the study period. Other than bare land, the spatial distribution of the remaining land types followed an east-west trend. The Research Area PLUS model demonstrated a high degree of simulation accuracy, as evidenced by its Kappa coefficient of 0.90 and overall accuracy of 0.94. This model also exhibited a FOM value of 0.045, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the underlying dynamics. In the multi-scenario predictions for 2028, land use changes vary across different scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, arable land decreased by 1.43%, forest land and grassland increased by 1.23% and 3.29%, respectively, and construction land decreased by 1.27%. The augmentation of construction land was to a certain extent regulated, a circumstance that was conducive to the sustainable development of the study area. The research results provided reference and data support for local environmental protection and land use planning.