SFSG模型:基于趋势-波动分量协同的边坡变形精准预测
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院;2.石家庄铁道大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

U41

基金项目:

中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(自由探索类基础研究)(No.246Z5405G)河北省自然科学基金面上项目(No.D2025403082)


The SFSG Model: Accurate Prediction of Slope Deformation Based on Trend-Fluctuation Component Synergy
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GEO University;2.Shijiazhuang Tiedao University

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    边坡变形预测是岩土工程安全监控的核心环节。针对边坡沉降数据呈现的非线性、非平稳性及噪声干扰等特性,导致传统模型预测精度不足的情况,提出了结合奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis,SSA)、花朵授粉优化算法(flower pollination algorithm,FPA)以及支持向量机回归(support vector regression,SVR)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)的边坡变形预测模型,即SSA-FPA-SVR-GRU(SFSG)。首先,借助SSA将原始沉降序列自适应地分解为趋势项和波动项,结合小波变换(wavelet transform,WT)进行消噪处理;然后,利用SVR和GRU对趋势项和波动项进行匹配预测,整合得到组合预测框架;最后,借助FPA实现模型超参数寻优。以内蒙古不连沟煤矿1216平台护坡的现场沉降数据为背景,与其他四种智能算法优化后的SSA-SVR-GRU模型进行对比验证得到,SFSG模型的MAPE分别降低至1.3313%、0.0750mm和0.0626mm,R2高达97.45%;同理通过P2、P3测点了验证其优越性(R2大于97%)。因此,研究得到的SFSG模型可以更好地用于处理边坡沉降时序的复杂特征问题,也可为边坡工程的精准预测与安全预警提供了可靠的技术支持。

    Abstract:

    Slope deformation prediction is a core aspect of safety monitoring in geotechnical engineering. To address the limitations of traditional models in handling the nonlinear, non-stationary, and noise-prone characteristics of slope settlement data, this study proposes a novel SSA-FPA-SVR-GRU (SFSG) model integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The methodology involves: firstly, adaptively decomposing the original settlement series into trend and fluctuation components using SSA combined with Wavelet Transform (WT) for denoising; secondly, constructing a hybrid prediction framework where SVR and GRU respectively model the trend and fluctuation components before integrating their outputs; finally, employing FPA for automated hyperparameter optimization. Validated against field settlement data from the 1216 platform slope at Bulian Gou Coal Mine in Inner Mongolia, the SFSG model demonstrated superior performance compared to four other intelligent algorithm-enhanced SSA-SVR-GRU variants, achieving MAPE of 1.3313%, RMSE of 0.0750mm, MAE of 0.0626mm, and R2 of 97.45%. Consistent superiority was verified through monitoring points P2 and P3 (both R2>97%). The developed SFSG model effectively handles complex characteristics of slope settlement time series, providing reliable technical support for precise prediction and safety early-warning in slope engineering.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

戎密仁,冯超,庞银萍,等. SFSG模型:基于趋势-波动分量协同的边坡变形精准预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

复制
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-22
  • 录用日期:2026-05-13
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
×
2026年会通知 | “技术经济学驱动智能经济生态构建与治理变革”——中国技术经济学会第三十三届学术年会(2026)会议通知暨征文启事(第一轮)
亟待确认版面费归属稿件,敬请作者关注