基于相似性约束时序基础模型的水电设备通用预警方法
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中国长江电力股份有限公司

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TP183; TM622

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3210703);湖北省自然科学(2024AFD353)


A General Early Warning Method for Hydropower Equipments Based on Similarity-Constrained Time Series Foundation Models
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China Yangtze Power Co,Ltd

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    摘要:

    当前水电设备故障预警模型多为场景定制化小模型,可复用性较低,为模型开发及运维带来了较大负担。为实现“一模型多场景”的通用预警目标,提出了一种基于时序基础模型的水电设备故障预警方法。针对时序基础模型因跨分布泛化性过强难以有效区分正常与异常数据的难点,创新性地设计了一种基于隐式相似性建模的相似性约束时序基础模型框架。该框架通过在时序基础模型的隐特征空间中构建测试数据特征与原型特征间的相似性约束,限制模型在异常数据上的表达能力。理论分析结果以及在长江流域某大型水电站多个真实设备故障的案例分析结果表明,该框架能够增大时序基础模型对正常与异常数据的预测误差差异,提高异常模式的可辨识性,实现更准确、更提早的预警性能,为时序基础模型在水电设备通用预警中的应用提供了一种可行的方案。

    Abstract:

    The present fault early-warning models for hydropower equipments are mostly small and scenario-customized models with low reusability, which places a significant burden on model development, operations and maintenance. A hydropower equipment fault early warning method based on time series foundation models is proposed, aiming at a general early warning goal of one model for multiple scenarios. To address the dilemma that time series foundation models struggle to effectively distinguish between normal and abnormal data due to their strong cross-distribution generalization ability, a similarity-constrained framework based on latent similarity-based modeling is novelly developed for time series foundation models. The framework constructs similarity-based constraints between the representations of test data and prototypes, thus limiting the model’s performance for abnormal data. The theoretical analysis results and several real-world equipment fault case analysis results from a large hydropower station in the Yangtze River basin indicate that, the framework is capable of enlargeing the prediction error gap between normal and abnormal data, improving the identifiability of abnormal patterns, and improving accuracy and earliness of early warning. The framework provides a practical approach for application of time series foundation models for general hydropower equipment early warning.

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杨靖宇,孔丽君,田源,等. 基于相似性约束时序基础模型的水电设备通用预警方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-16
  • 录用日期:2026-05-09
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