基于DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost模型的离港航班滑出时间预测
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作者单位:

1.中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院;2.中国民航科学技术研究院

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V355.1

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国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3014400)、四川省民航飞行技术与飞行安全工程技术研究中心项目(GY2025-23D)和中央高校基本科研经费(25CAFUC03047)联合资助。


Departure Flights’ Taxi-Out Time Prediction based on the DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost Model
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Affiliation:

1.School of Air Traffic Control,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Jianyang,Sichuan;2.China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing

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    摘要:

    为解决离港航班滑出时间预测中的精度不足与误差控制难题,提出一种融合动态数据增强、相似理论和注意力机制的DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost预测模型。首先,基于历史运行数据系统分析场面交通流、航班属性及运行环境三类特征,通过相关性分析筛选关键影响因素;继而采用动态数据增强技术扩展训练样本分布,利用相似理论实现样本在多维特征空间的相似性匹配,引入注意力机制自适应校准特征权重。最后,采用CatBoost算法进行回归预测,充分发挥其处理类别特征和复杂非线性关系的优势。以国内某枢纽机场实际运行数据进行对比实验和消融实验,结果表明:该模型在±120s、±180s和±300s误差范围内的预测准确率分别达到74.57%、89.12%和97.76%,MAPE、MAE与RMSE分别为10.34%、87.55s和125.61s,性能显著优于对比模型和现有研究成果。各改进模块均对模型性能提升具有正向贡献,而三模块融合的DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost模型通过协同优化,在预测精度与稳定性方面均达到最优,能为机场地面运行调度提供可靠的决策支持。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of insufficient accuracy and error control in predicting departure taxi-out time, a DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost prediction model integrating dynamic data augmentation, similarity theory, and an attention mechanism is proposed. First, based on historical operational data, three categories of features including the surface traffic flow, flight attributes, and operational environment are systematically analyzed, and key influencing factors are selected through correlation analysis. Subsequently, dynamic data augmentation technology is employed to expand the training sample distribution, similarity theory is applied to achieve multi-dimensional feature space matching of samples, and an attention mechanism is introduced to adaptively calibrate feature weights. Finally, the CatBoost algorithm is utilized for regression prediction, leveraging its advantages in handling categorical features and complex nonlinear relationships. Comparative and ablation experiments conducted on actual operational data from a domestic hub airport show that the proposed model achieves prediction accuracies of 74.57%, 89.12%, and 97.76% within error margins of ±120s, ±180s, and ±300s, respectively, with MAPE, MAE, and RMSE values of 10.34%, 87.55s, and 125.61s. The model significantly outperforms comparative models in performance. Each improved module contributes positively to enhancing model performance, and the integrated DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost model, through synergistic optimization, achieves optimal performance in both prediction accuracy and stability, providing reliable decision support for airport ground operational scheduling.

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夏正洪,李彦直,贾鑫磊,等. 基于DDA-SIM-ATT-CatBoost模型的离港航班滑出时间预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-22
  • 录用日期:2026-05-09
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