融合时空特征与驾驶意图的车辆轨迹预测
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1.北京工业大学城市交通学院;2.智能警务四川省重点实验室;3.广西中国-东盟综合交通国际联合重点实验室

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U495

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智能警务四川省重点实验室开放基金(ZNJW2023KFZD002)


Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Integrating Spatio-Temporal Features and Driving Intention
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1.College of Metropolitan Transportation,Beijing University of Technology;2.Intelligent Policing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province;3.Guangxi Key Laboratory of lnternational Join for China-ASEAN Comprehensive Transportation

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    摘要:

    为了提升车辆轨迹预测在复杂交通环境中的精确度,提出了一种融合空间交互特征、时间动态特征与驾驶意图信息的车辆轨迹预测模型。首先,基于目标车辆与周围车辆的相对位置和运动状态构建交互图,利用图注意力机制提取空间交互特征。其次,采用Transformer捕捉长时序的全局依赖,引入LSTM表征局部动态变化,从而获得更全面的时序特征。进一步,采用空间自注意力机制与GRU-LSTM结构对换道意图进行识别,输出车辆左换道、右换道及直行的概率分布,用以表征驾驶行为的不确定性。最后,将时空特征与驾驶意图概率在特征层级拼接为综合表示向量,并经全连接层输出目标车辆未来轨迹。在NGSIM数据集上对模型进行验证,所提出模型展现了优异性能。与模型S-LSTM和CS-LSTM相比,所提模型在1秒到5秒的预测时,RMSE分别较S-LSTM降低了13.8%、45%、41.2%、40.5%和38.8%,较CS-LSTM降低了8.2%、15.8%、39.7%、37.5%和36.3%。实验结果表明,该模型提升了轨迹预测的准确性,为智能驾驶系统提供了可靠的决策依据。

    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of vehicle trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments, a vehicle trajectory prediction model integrating spatial interaction features, temporal dynamic features, and driving intention information is proposed. First, an interaction graph was constructed based on the relative positions and motion states of the target vehicle and surrounding vehicles, and spatial interaction features were extracted by a graph attention mechanism. Second, Transformer was employed to capture long-range global dependencies, and LSTM was introduced to characterize local dynamic variations, thereby obtaining more comprehensive temporal features. Furthermore, a spatial self-attention mechanism and a GRU-LSTM structure were used to recognize lane-changing intentions, and the probability distributions of left lane change, right lane change, and lane keeping were output to characterize the uncertainty of driving behavior. Finally, the spatiotemporal features and driving intention probabilities were concatenated at the feature level into a comprehensive representation vector, and the future trajectory of the target vehicle was generated through a fully connected layer. The proposed model was validated on the NGSIM dataset and demonstrates excellent performance. Compared with S-LSTM, the RMSE of the proposed model is reduced by 13.8%, 45.0%, 41.2%, 40.5%, and 38.8% at prediction horizons from 1 s to 5 s, respectively. Compared with CS-LSTM, the RMSE is reduced by 8.2%, 15.8%, 39.7%, 37.5%, and 36.3%, respectively. The results show that the proposed model significantly improves the accuracy of trajectory prediction and provides reliable decision support for intelligent driving systems.

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李振龙,王天硕,欧居尚,等. 融合时空特征与驾驶意图的车辆轨迹预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-24
  • 录用日期:2026-05-09
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