基于MIMO与SHAP的可解释XGBoost预测综合能源多元负荷
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1.陕西理工大学电气工程学院;2.云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院

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TM 715

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云南省重大科技专项计划项目(编号:202302AF080006);陕西理工大学人才引进(编号:X20250040)。


Interpretable XGBoost for Multi-Load Forecasting in Integrated Energy Systems Based on MIMO and SHAP
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1.School of Electrical Engineering, Shaanxi University of Technology;2.School of Electrical Engineering,Shananxi University of Technology

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    摘要:

    为解决综合能源系统多元负荷预测中模型可解释性不足和多元负荷强耦合性导致预测精度受限的问题,提出了融合多输入多输出(MIMO)策略与SHAP可解释性框架的XGBoost优化模型,实现了电、冷、热多元负荷的联合预测。结果表明:该模型电、冷、热负荷预测的平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.75%、3.45%和3.44%,相比单任务XGBoost模型分别降低12.8%、15.3%和14.7%;全局与局部SHAP解释性分析量化了输入特征的影响,特征贡献排序一致性达到0.8462,明确了温度、历史负荷和太阳辐射是影响预测精度的关键因素。可见,该方法有效显式捕捉了负荷间物理约束与动态关联,显著提升了综合能源系统多元负荷预测精度与模型决策的透明度。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of poor model interpretability and the limited prediction accuracy caused by strong multi-load coupling in integrated energy systems, an optimized XGBoost model integrating the Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) strategy and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework is proposed to achieve the joint forecasting of electricity, cooling, and heating loads. The results show that the mean absolute percentage errors for electricity, cooling, and heating load forecasting are 2.75%, 3.45%, and 3.44%, respectively, representing reductions of 12.8%, 15.3%, and 14.7% compared to the single-task XGBoost model. The global and local SHAP analysis quantifies the impact of input features, with a feature contribution ranking consistency reaching 0.8462, explicitly identifying temperature, historical loads, and solar radiation as the key factors affecting prediction accuracy. It is concluded that the proposed method effectively and explicitly captures the physical constraints and dynamic correlations among loads, significantly improving both the multi-load forecasting accuracy and the decision transparency of the model for integrated energy systems.

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余智豪,冉启武,杨家全,等. 基于MIMO与SHAP的可解释XGBoost预测综合能源多元负荷[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-08
  • 录用日期:2026-04-21
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