基于卡口数据的高速公路交通流预测
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1.北京云星宇交通科技股份有限公司;2.北京交通大学交通运输学院;3.河北省公安厅交管总队高速专班

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U491.1

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基于卡口数据的高速公路断面交通流精准预测研究(X9224147)


Highway Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Checkpoint Data
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1.Beijing Yunxingyu Traffic Technology LTD;2.School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University;3.Hebei Provincial Public Security Department Traffic Control Corps High Speed Class

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    摘要:

    为提高高速公路交通流预测精度,结合S-G滤波器、BiLSTM、GRU等方法,提出了基于S-G滤波器的BiLSTM-GRU组合模型进行高速公路短时交通流预测。该组合模型通过首先使用S-G滤波器合理去除数据中的噪声和异常波动,解决模型难以捕捉学习高速交通流量波动性较大问题;其次通过使用BiLSTM,根据其双向优势捕捉交通流数据的长期依赖关系与时间模式;再者GRU则通过自动学习特征,高效提取与转换BiLSTM的输出特征输出预测值;最终采用平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)与平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对预测结果进行评价分析。实例分析选取京哈高速天津界(唐山段)104KM主线卡口沈阳方向交通流数据,对组合模型预测性能进行分析,结果表明:基于S-G滤波器的BiLSTM-GRU组合模型相比传统单一模型及其他组合模型,MSE改善了0.75~51.28、MAE改善了0.14~3.82、MAPE改善了0.95%~20.84%。可见,基于S-G滤波器的BiLSTM-GRU组合模型能够合理去除数据中的噪声和异常波动,提高高速公路短时交通流预测精度,为高速公路交通流管控提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of expressway traffic flow, combined with S-G filter, BiLSTM, GRU and other methods, a BiLSTM-GRU combined model based on S-G filter is proposed to predict the short-term traffic flow of expressway. The combined model first uses the S-G filter to reasonably remove noise and abnormal fluctuations in the data, and solves the problem that the model is difficult to capture and learn the large fluctuation of high-speed traffic flow. Secondly, by using BiLSTM, the long-term dependence and time pattern of traffic flow data are captured according to its two-way advantages. Furthermore, GRU efficiently extracts and converts the output features of BiLSTM to output predictive values by automatically learning features. Finally, the mean absolute error ( MAE ), mean square error ( MSE ) and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE ) were used to evaluate the prediction results. The case analysis selects the traffic flow data of the 104KM main line bayonet Shenyang direction of the Beijing-Harbin Expressway in Tianjin ( Tangshan section ), and analyzes the prediction performance of the combined model. The results show that the BiLSTM-GRU combined model based on S-G filter improves MSE by 0.75 to 51.28, MAE by 0.14 to 3.82, and MAPE by 0.95 % to 20.84 % compared with the traditional single model and other combined models. It can be seen that the BiLSTM-GRU combined model based on S-G filter can reasonably remove noise and abnormal fluctuations in the data, improve the prediction accuracy of short-term traffic flow on expressways, and provide theoretical basis for traffic flow control on expressways.

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王启明,白继根,冯斯特,等. 基于卡口数据的高速公路交通流预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-09
  • 录用日期:2026-04-21
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