基于安全约束下LSR-TSO-SVR的飞机燃油流量预测
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1.中国民航大学民航航班广域监视与安全管控技术重点实验室;2.中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院;3.中国民航大学科技创新研究院

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V228

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFB4303900);民航航班广域监视与安全管控技术重点实验室基金(GY202504);


Research on Aircraft Fuel Flow Prediction Based on LSR-TSO-SVR under Safety Constraint
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1.CAAC Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Wide Survellence and Safety Operation Management &2.Control Technology, Civil Aviation University of China

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    摘要:

    针对飞机燃油流量预测中安全性考量不足、时序特征捕捉缺失及模型泛化性有限的问题,以 A320 机型QAR(quick access recorder)数据为基础,开展基于安全约束的LSR-TSO-SVR 燃油流量预测研究。通过改进金枪鱼群优化算法(tuna swarm optimization,TSO)优化支持向量机回归(support vector regression,SVR)超参数,融入滞后与滑窗增强回归(lagged and sliding-window enhanced regression,LSR)及安全硬约束,构建飞机燃油流量预测模型。研究结果表明:准确性上,LSR-TSO-SVR 模型对 A320 机型燃油流量预测平均误差率仅0.94%,总油耗预测准确度达99.97%,显著优于传统SVR及极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)模型;泛化能力上,对B737-900ER、C919 机型的预测误差率分别为1.62%、1.19%,表明该方法可实现跨机型的燃油流量预测;安全性上,A320、B737-900ER以及C919机型均严格满足预设的安全约束。

    Abstract:

    To address the insufficient consideration of safety, the lack of temporal feature extraction, and the limited generalization ability in aircraft fuel-flow prediction, a safety-constrained LSR-TSO-SVR method for fuel flow prediction is proposed on the basis of A320 quick access recorder (QAR) data. The hyperparameters of support vector regression (SVR) were optimized by an improved tuna swarm optimization (TSO) algorithm. Lagged and sliding-window enhanced regression (LSR) and safety hard constraints were incorporated. An aircraft fuel-flow prediction model was then constructed. The results show that, in terms of accuracy, the LSR-TSO-SVR model achieves an average prediction error rate of only 0.94% for the A320, and the prediction accuracy of total fuel consumption reaches 99.97%, which is significantly better than those of the conventional SVR and extreme learning machine (ELM) models. In terms of generalization ability, the prediction error rates for the B737-900ER and C919 are 1.62 %and 1.19%, respectively, which indicates that cross-aircraft-type fuel flow prediction can be achieved by this method. In terms of safety, the predefined safety constraints are satisfied by the A320, B737-900ER, and C919.

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时统宇,焦彩景,王岩韬. 基于安全约束下LSR-TSO-SVR的飞机燃油流量预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-03
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-07
  • 录用日期:2026-04-21
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