基于区间预测的抽蓄-新能源-火电出力枯水期调度方法
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广西大学 电气工程学院 广西 南宁

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TM734

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国家自然科学基金(52377172)


Interval prediction-based scheduling method for pumped storage, renewable energy, and thermal power output during dry season
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School of Electrical Engineering,Guangxi University

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    摘要:

    随着能源转型的推进,构建新型电力系统迫在眉睫。由于风电、光伏发电具有很强的波动性,因此当风电、光伏大规模接入电力系统时,会影响电力系统的稳定性。为了减少新能源的波动性给电力系统带来的损害,提高电力系统的经济效益。本文提出了基于新能源出力区间预测的调度方法:先用粒子群优化反向神经网络(Particle Swarm Optimization - Back Propagation Neural Network,PSO-BP)算法对新能源出力进行点预测,然后在此基础上用Bootstrap方法进行区间预测,从而尽可能将新能源出力的波动性考虑到调度系统中。此外,为了提高新能源的消纳能力,在系统中加入了抽蓄储能系统。为了提高抽蓄储能给电力系统带来的经济效益,本文对抽蓄储能系统的容量进行了规划。本文以新疆某地区电力系统为例,对其进行仿真分析,结果表明,合理的容量规划可以给电力系统带来超过一百万元的经济效益,并提高了对新能源消纳能力。区间预测相对点功率预测在提高电力系统稳定性的同时,还将电力系统的总收益提高了13%,弃风弃光率降低了36%。

    Abstract:

    With the advancement of energy transformation, a new type of power system is urgently required to be built. Due to the strong volatility of wind and photovoltaic power generation, the stability of the power system is affected by the large-scale integration of wind and photovoltaic power. In order to reduce the damage caused by the volatility of new energy to the power system and to improve the economic efficiency of the power system, a scheduling method based on interval prediction of new energy output is proposed. First, the Particle Swarm Optimization Back Propagation Neural Network (PSO-BP) algorithm is used to predict the point of new energy output, and then the Bootstrap method is used for interval prediction on this basis, so that the fluctuation of new energy output is taken into account as much as possible in the scheduling system. In addition, in order to improve the consumption capacity of new energy, a pumped storage energy system is added to the system. To improve the economic benefits brought by pumped storage energy to the power system, the capacity of the pumped storage energy system is planned. The power system in a certain region of Xinjiang is taken as an example and simulation analysis is conducted. The results show that reasonable capacity planning can bring more than one million yuan in economic benefits to the power system and improve its ability to absorb new energy. Compared with point prediction, interval prediction not only improves the stability of the power system, but also increases the total revenue of the power system by 13% and reduces the wind and solar power curtailment rate by 36%.

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容家鑫,莫仕勋,刘斌,等. 基于区间预测的抽蓄-新能源-火电出力枯水期调度方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-03
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-11
  • 录用日期:2026-04-21
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