融合BiMamba2与非局部注意力的光伏电站群功率预测时空图网络模型
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TM615

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绿色建筑全国重点实验室自主研究课题(LSZZ-Y202414),国家自然科学基金(12471410)。


Temporal-Spatial Graph Network Model with BiMamba2 and Non-local Attention for Photovoltaic Cluster Power Prediction
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    摘要:

    随着光伏发电占比提升,其功率的精准预测对电网稳定与消纳至关重要。然而,传统时间序列预测方法对光伏功率复杂动态的刻画能力有限,而现有基于图神经网络的时空预测模型在长时序依赖与全局空间相关性的捕捉上仍存在一定挑战,尤其在多步预测中易产生误差累积。为此,本文提出一种改进的时空图神经网络模型:MTGNN-BiMamba2-NL。该模型在多元时间序列预测框架(MTGNN)中,以双向状态空间模型(BiMamba2)替代时间卷积,以强化长时序特征提取。同时,在图卷积层后融入非局部(NL)注意力机制,以增强站点间的全局空间关联建模。在两个真实光伏数据集上的实验表明,所提模型在多步预测任务中能有效缓解误差累积,其预测精度与稳定性均优于现有基线方法。

    Abstract:

    With the increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, accurate prediction of PV output is essential for grid stability and power accommodation. However, traditional time series forecasting methods exhibit limited capability in characterizing the complex dynamics of PV power, while existing graph neural network based spatiotemporal forecasting models still face certain challenges in capturing long-term temporal dependencies and global spatial correlations, particularly in multi-step forecasting where error accumulation easily occurs. To address these limitations, an improved spatiotemporal graph neural network model, termed MTGNN-BiMamba2-NL, is proposed. Within the multivariate time series forecasting framework based on graph neural networks (MTGNN), the temporal convolution module is replaced by a bidirectional state space model (BiMamba2) to enhance long-term temporal feature extraction. Meanwhile, a Non-local (NL) attention is incorporated after the graph convolution layers to strengthen the modeling of global spatial correlations among sites. Experiments were conducted on two real-world PV datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively alleviates error accumulation in multi-step forecasting and achieves superior prediction accuracy and stability compared with existing baseline methods.

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史加荣,王姣姣,栗雪娟. 融合BiMamba2与非局部注意力的光伏电站群功率预测时空图网络模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(26): 11318-11325.
Shi Jiarong, Wang Jiaojiao, Li Xuejuan. Temporal-Spatial Graph Network Model with BiMamba2 and Non-local Attention for Photovoltaic Cluster Power Prediction[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(26):11318-11325.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-27
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-12
  • 录用日期:2026-02-06
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-29
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