基于阶段解耦的航空器离场滑行时间预测方法: 以北京大兴国际机场为例
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V355

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国家自然科学基金(U2333204)


A Phase-Decoupling Approach for Aircraft Taxiing Out Time Prediction:A Case Study of Beijing Daxing International Airport
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    摘要:

    在全球民航运输快速发展背景下,机坪运行效率对机场整体效能的影响愈发关键,滑行时间是场面调度决策的重要依据。现有滑行时间预测方法大多以撤轮挡时刻为起点、抬轮起飞时刻为终点,对滑行过程进行整体建模,已达到预测瓶颈难以突破;为此,本研究提出分阶段滑行时间预测方法,通过将滑行过程划分为推出、滑行道行驶具有明确动力学特征的子阶段,采用LightGBM与XGBoost算法对各阶段独立建模——前者利用高效梯度提升机制实现关键因素快速识别,后者通过正则化策略优化复杂非线性关系拟合。该方法解耦阶段性特征,降低模型复杂度并提升动态适应性。结果表明,所提模型在平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)等指标上优于传统整体预测,尤其在极端工况下仍保持高精度与鲁棒性。本研究的价值不仅限于提供各阶段滑行时间的精准预测,更能为机场场面态势感知、全流程运行实时优化提供量化支撑,有效增强机场地面运行系统应对外部扰动的韧性。

    Abstract:

    In order to break through the prediction bottleneck of existing holistic modeling methods for aircraft taxiing time and improve the accuracy of ramp control-related scheduling decisions, a phased aircraft taxiing time prediction method based on phase decoupling was used to investigate the taxi process. The taxi process was divided into sub-phases with distinct dynamic characteristics (pushback and taxiway travel), and two machine learning algorithms (LightGBM and XGBoost) were adopted for independent modeling of each phase: the former realizes rapid identification of key factors through an efficient gradient boosting mechanism, while the latter optimizes the fitting of complex nonlinear relationships via a regularization strategy. The results show that the proposed model outperforms traditional holistic prediction in indicators such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE), and maintains high accuracy and robustness even under extreme operating conditions. It is concluded that the study not only provides accurate predictions of aircraft taxiing time for each phase but also offers quantitative support for airport surface situational awareness and real-time optimization of full-process operations, effectively enhancing the resilience of the airport ground operation system in responding to external disturbances.

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李楠,安骏,刘昕瑞,等. 基于阶段解耦的航空器离场滑行时间预测方法: 以北京大兴国际机场为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(24): 10618-10626.
LI Nan, AN Jun, LIU Xin-rui, et al. A Phase-Decoupling Approach for Aircraft Taxiing Out Time Prediction:A Case Study of Beijing Daxing International Airport[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(24):10618-10626.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-13
  • 录用日期:2026-01-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-02
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