基于优化随机森林模型的盐穴储气库采输能力预测
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TE822

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFB4007100)


Deliverability Prediction of Salt Cavern Gas Storage Based on Optimized Random Forest Model
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    摘要:

    采输能力是盐穴储气库的核心产能指标,通过输入总库容、垫气量等储气参数从而预测盐穴的采输能力对于保障储气库的安全运行和精准注采调控至关重要。针对盐穴储气库采输能力预测中随机森林(random forest,RF)模型存在的优化耗时长、特征工程不完整和泛化能力不足等技术短板,本文提出了多采样率集成随机森林预测模型。通过设计“三重优化”技术路线,递进式实施双引擎超参数优化策略、物理-数据驱动特征工程以及三级自适应采样集成机制,有效提升了整体模型的预测精度、可解释性和鲁棒性。基于1334个样本数据开展验证研究,结果表明该模型的测试集决定系数为0.9997,具有高预测精度。与单一采样率随机森林模型相比,该模型的测试集均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了48.4%和52.1%,且在不同噪声水平下仍保持着显著的性能优势。本研究为机器学习在盐穴储气库智能存储与预测调控中的应用提供了新思路。

    Abstract:

    Deliverability is recognized as the primary productivity indicator of salt cavern gas storage. Accurate prediction of deliverability based on input parameters such as total gas storage capacity and base gas capacity is essential for ensuring operational safety and achieving precise injection–withdrawal regulation. To address existing limitations of the conventional random forest (RF) model in deliverability prediction, including long optimization time, incomplete feature engineering, and insufficient generalization capability, a Multi-Sampling-Rate Random Forest (MSR-RF) prediction model is proposed in this study. The model is designed under a “triple-optimization” technical framework that integrates a dual-engine hyperparameter optimization strategy, a physics-informed and data-driven feature engineering scheme, and a three-tier adaptive sampling ensemble mechanism. These enhancements collectively improve the predictive accuracy, interpretability, and robustness of the model. Validation is performed using 1,334 samples, and the results show that the proposed model achieves a coefficient of determination of 0.9997 on the test set, demonstrating high prediction accuracy. Compared with the Single-Sampling-Rate RF model, reductions of 48.4% in root mean square error and 52.1% in mean absolute error are observed, and stable performance is maintained across various noise levels. This study provides new insights into the application of machine learning for intelligent storage management and predictive control in salt cavern gas storage systems.

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彭佳琪,杨竞择,傅彬彬,等. 基于优化随机森林模型的盐穴储气库采输能力预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(24): 10394-10403.
PENG Jia-qi, YANG Jing-ze, FU Bin-bin, et al. Deliverability Prediction of Salt Cavern Gas Storage Based on Optimized Random Forest Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(24):10394-10403.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-08-21
  • 录用日期:2026-01-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-02
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