基于双路径时空图注意力网络的短时交通流量预测
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Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Dual-Path Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Network
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    摘要:

    短时交通流量预测是智能交通系统实现高效管理与实时调控的关键技术。针对现有方法在时空依赖表示与误差累积方面的不足,提出双路径时空图注意力网络模型以实现更准确、鲁棒的短时交通流量预测。首先,设计静动态双路径图注意力机制提取空间特征。静态注意力分支基于路网物理拓扑构建稳定空间关系,动态注意力分支依据实时交通流数据自适应捕捉突发性空间关联,两者通过一个可学习的融合参数进行加权融合,自适应地平衡静态拓扑与动态状态之间的影响,从而提取综合空间特征;其次,采用长短时记忆网络编码器结构,分层提取和灵活映射时间序列特征;最后,解码器引入动态衰减的混合示教学习机制,融合递归与示教两种解码模式进行交通流量的预测,以有效抑制误差累积。采用PEMS04和PEMS08数据集进行训练、验证和测试,结果表明,模型在MAE、RMSE、MAPE指标上分别比最优的时空对比模型CNN-LSTM实现约4.23%、3.18%、6.90%与3.89%、2.59%、6.44%的提升。可见,模型能够有效平衡路网的静态拓扑与动态状态,并通过混合示教学习机制显著减少误差累积,证明了其在短时交通流量预测方面的优越性能和应用潜力。

    Abstract:

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is a key technology for intelligent transportation systems to achieve efficient management and real-time regulation. To address the shortcomings of existing methods in spatio-temporal dependency representation and error accumulation, a dual-path spatio-temporal graph attention network model is proposed to achieve more accurate and robust short-term traffic flow prediction. Firstly, a dual-path graph attention mechanism for both static and dynamic conditions is designed to extract spatial features. The static attention branch builds stable spatial relationships based on the physical topology of the road network, while the dynamic attention branch adaptively captures sudden spatial correlations based on real-time traffic flow data. The two branches are weighted and fused through a learnable fusion parameter, adaptively balancing the influence between static topology and dynamic state, thereby extracting comprehensive spatial features. Secondly, a long short-term memory network encoder structure is adopted to hierarchically extract and flexibly map the features of time series. Finally, the decoder introduces a dynamic attenuation hybrid teaching-learning mechanism, integrating recursive and teaching decoding modes to predict traffic flow, in order to effectively prevent error accumulation. The PEMS04 and PEMS08 datasets were used for training, validation and testing. The results showed that the model achieved approximately 4.23%, 3.18%, 6.90% and 3.89%, 2.59%, 6.44% improvements over the optimal spatio-temporal comparison model CNN-LSTM in terms of MAE, RMSE, MAPE indicators respectively. It can be seen that the model is capable of effectively balancing the static topology and dynamic state of the road network, and significantly reduces error accumulation through the hybrid teaching-learning mechanism, demonstrating its superior performance and application potential in short-term traffic flow prediction.

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冯文文,朱冠铭,吴晓东,等. 基于双路径时空图注意力网络的短时交通流量预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(24): 10606-10617.
Feng Wenwen, Zhu Guanming, Wu Xiaodong, et al. Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Dual-Path Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Network[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(24):10606-10617.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-07
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-12
  • 录用日期:2026-01-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-02
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