Abstract:Taking the Hongliu mining area of the Jurassic coalfield in Ningdong as the engineering background, based on a thorough analysis of the entire process of stress evolution caused by coal mining disturbance, two typical overlying rock types (siltstone and muddy sandstone) were selected, and then a stress-seepage coupling test of the coal seam overburden aquiclude under the entire process of coal mining disturbance stress path was carried out, and a mathematical model for the permeability coefficient evolution of the coal seam overburden aquiclude was constructed. A prediction model for water inflow throughout the entire life cycle of the coalface was established by combining MATLAB and COMSOL Multiphysics, and compared with the on-site measured water inflow values for verification. The results show that: (1) The permeability coefficient of the coal seam overburden aquiclude after the action of the coal mining disturbance is all increased compared with that before mining. The influence of permeation pressure on the permeability coefficient of muddy sandstone is significantly greater than that of siltstone, which may be related to its erosion susceptibility and bedding angle. (2) With the advancement of the coalface, the water inflow volume approximately increases in a power function. When the coalface advances 200 m, the water inflow volume reaches the maximum value of 42.1 m3/h, with a significant increase in the initial stage and a gradual slowdown in the middle and later stages. After the coalface is mined, with the increase of the post-mining time, the initial decline rate is relatively large, and the decline rate gradually slows down or even stops in the middle and later stages. (3) The average prediction error between the predicted water inflow from numerical simulation and the measured water inflow at different advancing distances of the coalface is 4.14%, indicating that the model has high accuracy. Based on this, the water inflow at different time periods after the completion of mining in the coalface was further predicted. The study results can provide a theoretical basis for the precise prediction of water inflow volume in coal mining coalfaces and the prediction of the water accumulation process in goafs.