CW-MIDBO-ELM: 一种考虑天气影响的光伏功率优化组合预测模型
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TM615

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甘肃省科技重大专项计划(25ZYJA037)


CW-MIDBO-ELM: An Optimized Hybrid Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Power Considering Weather Factors
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    摘要:

    因受太阳辐射、风速和温度等因素的影响,光伏发电的功率会产生较大地波动,在进行大规模光伏并网时,这种波动会对电力系统的运行和调度造成很大的困难,因此,准确的光伏发电功率预测对确保电网稳定运营起着很大的作用。本文提出了一种结合自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise, CEEMDAN)与小波分析(Wavelet Analysis)、多策略融合改进的蜣螂优化算法(Multi-strategy Improved Dung Beetle Optimization, MIDBO)和极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine, ELM)的光伏功率组合预测模型,即CW-MIDBO-ELM。使用CEEMDAN联合小波降噪对影响光伏输出功率的关键影响因素进行分解重构,降低影响因素序列的非平稳性,并对蜣螂算法进行多策略融合改进,优化ELM算法的连接权重和隐含层偏置参数,提高ELM算法的网络稳定性和预测准确性。通过实验验证,所提出的光伏功率组合模型在预测性能上有明显的提升。

    Abstract:

    Given that environmental factors such as solar radiation, wind speed, and temperature exert significant influences on the fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, these fluctuations pose substantial challenges to the secure operation and dispatching of power systems with large-scale PV integration. Therefore, accurate PV power forecasting is essential for maintaining grid stability. In this study, a hybrid forecasting model, CW-MIDBO-ELM, is proposed. The model integrates Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), wavelet analysis, the Multi-Strategy Improved Dung Beetle Optimization algorithm (MIDBO), and the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). CEEMDAN combined with wavelet denoising is employed to decompose and reconstruct key meteorological features affecting PV output, thereby mitigating the non-stationarity of the input sequences. Furthermore, the MIDBO algorithm is used to optimize the input-layer weights and hidden-layer bias parameters of the ELM, enabling improved network stability and enhanced prediction accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CW-MIDBO-ELM model achieves markedly higher forecasting performance compared with benchmark methods.

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马彦宏,付国力,高敬更,等. CW-MIDBO-ELM: 一种考虑天气影响的光伏功率优化组合预测模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(13): 5521-5530.
Ma Yanhong, Fu Guoli, Gao Jinggeng, et al. CW-MIDBO-ELM: An Optimized Hybrid Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Power Considering Weather Factors[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(13):5521-5530.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-06
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-21
  • 录用日期:2026-01-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-18
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