航班运行不安全事件推演过程: 以多层网络动态传播视角
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X949;U8

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国家重点研发课题(2024YFB4303900);中央高校基本科研业务项目(3122025038)


Flight operation unsafe incidents derivation process: a multi-layer network dynamic propagation perspective
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    摘要:

    为探究航班运行不安全事件的动态传播过程,针对现有模型传播方法单一、无法推演事件演化过程等问题,首先采用事件树方法从事故报告、统计报告中提取触发、传播及顶部事件作为节点,构建单向风险网络;然后,按照传播特征,定义起始节点层、概率传播层、容量-负荷传播层及系统动力学传播层;构建各层传播方法,概率传播层通过节点度量化触发概率,容量—负荷层通过节点容量函数量化负荷分配,系统动力学层通过时间累积推演不安全事件发生;进而,从级联失效规模、风险演化过程及事件触发次数多角度开展网络分析;最后,根据推演效果,提出航班运行过程中事件控制措施。经分析伊春空难过程得出,若降低连边负荷传递效率可使风险演化过程延长23%,阻断连边可消除事故发生;对于山航事故,若降低节点初始负荷,可使风险演化过程延长40%,控制边状态可使风险演化过程延长46%,阻止事故症候发生。结果表明,该方法可准确表征航班运行不安全事件的演化过程,平均推演单位时间约为3min。

    Abstract:

    In order to investigate the dynamic propagation process of flight operation safety incidents, a layered propagation network model was used to investigate incident evolution. Triggering events, propagating events, and top-level events were extracted from accident reports and statistical reports using the event tree method. Subsequently, the unidirectional risk network was constructed. The initial node layer, probability propagation layer, capacity-load propagation layer, and system dynamics propagation layer were defined based on propagation characteristics. Specific propagation methods for each layer were developed. The probability propagation layer quantifies trigger probabilities using node metrics. The capacity-load propagation layer quantifies load distribution through node capacity functions. The system dynamics propagation layer simulates unsafe events through time accumulation. Network analyses from multiple perspectives, including cascading failure scale, risk evolution processes, and event trigger frequencies, were conducted. Event control measures for flight operations were proposed based on simulation results. Analysis of the Yichun air crash indicates that reducing load transmission efficiency of connected edges extends the risk evolution process by 23%, and blocking connected edges prevents the accident occurrence. For the Shandong Airlines accident, reducing initial node loads extends the risk evolution process by 40%, and controlling edge states extends the risk evolution process by 46%, thus preventing accident symptoms. The results show that this method accurately characterizes the evolution process of unsafe events during flight operations, with an average simulation time of approximately 3 minutes per unit time. It is concluded that the layered propagation network model effectively supports safety management and accident prevention in flight operations.

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王岩韬,杨林森,时统宇. 航班运行不安全事件推演过程: 以多层网络动态传播视角[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(13): 5765-5776.
Wang Yantao, Yang Linsen, Shi Tongyu. Flight operation unsafe incidents derivation process: a multi-layer network dynamic propagation perspective[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(13):5765-5776.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-01
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-20
  • 录用日期:2025-11-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-18
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