雨量站数量及分布对喀斯特区域中小流域的模拟精度影响: 以独木河流域为例
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P333

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国家自然科学基金(51969006,42165001,42167037),贵州水利科技经费项目(KT201707)


Influence of Quantity and Arrangement of Rain Gauges on Accuracy of Runoff Simulation in Medium-sized Watershed in Karst Areas: Evidence from Dumu River Basin
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    摘要:

    雨量站数量和分布对径流模拟有重要影响,尤其是下垫面条件复杂、站点分布不均匀、山洪灾害频发的西南山区。 选取易发山洪的典型流域———乌江上游支流独木河流域为对象,基于流域内的降雨和径流观测数据,选取便于综合集成开展 大量随机模拟的半分布式水文模型 TOPMODEL(topography-based hydrological model)为载体,基于多种误差分析指标和站网空 间分布描述指标,定量揭示雨量站数量和分布特征对喀斯特区域典型流域模拟精度的影响。 结果表明:均值、标准差、变异系 数、最小值和最大值均以指数形式变化,极差则呈现出负指数平方形式衰减;相关系数、纳什效率系数的最大值相对稳定表明 即使雨量站较少,也可通过优化站网分布实现较高的模拟精度;最近邻指数(nearest neighbor index, NNI)与各评价指标之间存 在二次函数关系,模型精度最高时 NNI 为 1 ~ 2;信息熵随站点数目的变化趋势和相关系数、纳什效率系数一致,和误差指标之 间的相关性比 NNI 更好。 NNI 和信息熵均表现出一定的不确定性:同一值可伴随多种模拟精度,但不一定能模拟好径流。 研 究成果可为区域的站网优化、洪水分析预报及水资源评价等方面提供技术参考。

    Abstract:

    Runoff simulation is greatly impacted by the quantity and arrangement of rain gauges, especially in difficult terrain like the southwest mountainous area where there are frequent flash floods and unevenly distributed rain gauges. The Dumu River Basin, a common watershed in the upper levels of the Wujiang River that is vulnerable to flash floods, was chosen as the subject region for this investigation. The semi-distributed hydrological model TOPMODEL, which is easy to integrate and carry out a large number of stochas- tic simulations, was selected as the carrier for the rainfall and runoff observation data in the basin. This study quantitatively demon- strates the impact of the number and distribution characteristics of rain gauges on the simulation accuracy of typical karst basins using a variety of error analysis indicators and rain gage network spatial distribution description indicators. According to the findings, the range shows a negative exponential square decay, whereas the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, minimum value, and maxi- mum value all change exponentially. The maximum values of the NSE and correlation coefficient stay comparatively constant, sugges- ting that by optimizing the network distribution of rain gauges, great simulation accuracy can be attained even with a small number of rain gauges. All hydrological model indicators show a quadratic function relationship with the nearest neighbor index ( NNI) . Informa- tion entropy shows the same trend as correlation coefficients and NSE with regard to the number of rain gauges, and it has a greater cor- relation with error indicators than NNI. The maximum model accuracy is achieved when NNI falls between 1 and 2. A certain amount of uncertainty is present in both NNI and information entropy: the same value may accompany multiple simulation accuracies. This sug- gests that while establishing a rain gage network with a single indicator can effectively analyze areal rainfall, it may not always accurate- ly simulate runoff. The results of the study can serve as technical references for water resource assessment, flood analysis and forecas- ting, and network optimization for regional rain gauges.

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曾师婕,周向阳,陈百炼,等. 雨量站数量及分布对喀斯特区域中小流域的模拟精度影响: 以独木河流域为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(13): 5348-5362.
Zeng Shijie, Zhou Xiangyang, Chen Bailian, et al. Influence of Quantity and Arrangement of Rain Gauges on Accuracy of Runoff Simulation in Medium-sized Watershed in Karst Areas: Evidence from Dumu River Basin[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(13):5348-5362.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-11
  • 录用日期:2025-11-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-18
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