计及不确定性的中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定方法
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作者单位:

1.浙江电力交易中心有限公司;2.浙江华云信息科技有限公司;3.华北电力大学

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N34

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071077);国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(2023FD06)。第一作者:徐奇锋(1980—),男,汉族,浙江杭州,硕士,教授级高级工程师。研究方向:电力市场、电网运行控制。E-mail :xu_qifeng@zj.sgcc.com.cn。*通信作者:俞静(1984—),女,汉族,浙江杭州,硕士,高级工程师。研究方向:电力市场、电力大数据分析。E-mail:yujing@hyit.com.cn。


A method for determining the electricity price for medium-and-long-term bilateral negotiation in different periods considering uncertainties
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Affiliation:

1.Zhejiang Electric Power Trading Center Co,Ltd;2.North China Electric Power University

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    摘要:

    中长期带曲线交易是实现电力中长期市场与现货市场衔接的有效途径。由于双边协商是绿电交易的两种方式之一,故中长期双边协商分时段电量电价如何确定是中长期带曲线交易研究过程中不可回避的问题。本文针对新能源发电出力和用户负荷双重不确定性,提出了一种基于分布鲁棒优化和纳什讨价还价理论的中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定方法。首先针对源荷双侧不确定性,基于Wasserstein距离构建了最大成交电力分布不确定性模糊集。其次,构建了基于分布鲁棒优化的电量确定模型。再次,依据确定电量和利益共同体总收益构建基于纳什讨价还价理论的电价确定模型。最后,通过算例仿真对本文所提方法进行验证分析。结果表明所提方法考虑了源荷双侧不确定性,能够有效解决中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定问题。

    Abstract:

    Mid-to-long-term trading with curve is an effective way to realize the connection between the mid-to-long-term electricity market and the spot market. Since bilateral negotiation is one of the two ways of green power trading, how to determine the time-sharing electricity and the time-sharing trading price of mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiation transaction is an unavoidable issue in the study of mid-to-long-term with curve trading. This paper proposes a method for determining time-sharing power and trading price in the mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiation transaction based on distributional robust optimization (DRO) and Nash Bargaining Theory in view of the double uncertainties of new energy power generation output and customer load. Firstly, for the dual uncertainty of output and load, the ambiguity set of the distribution uncertainty of maximum deal power is constructed using a Wasserstein metric as the distance measurement. Secondly, a DRO-based time-sharing power determination model is constructed. Again, the time-sharing trading price determination model based on Nash bargaining theory is constructed based on the determination of time-sharing electricity and the total benefit of the community of interest. Finally, the proposed method is validated and analyzed through case study. The results show that the proposed method takes into account the uncertainty of both generation and user, and is able to effectively solve the time-sharing electricity and the time-sharing trading price of mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiation transaction determination problem.

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徐奇锋,庄晓丹,程杰,等. 计及不确定性的中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-03
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-08
  • 录用日期:2024-07-09
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