基于HEFA-FT路线的可持续航空燃料 碳减排潜力与减排成本研究
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中国民航大学

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X321;F205

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(146)


Research on the Carbon Reduction Potential and Cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Based on the HEFA-FT Route
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中国民航大学

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    摘要:

    预测符合中国国情的可持续航空燃料的减排成本与潜力对推动SAF行业的发展,对实现碳中和目标至关重要。基于国际可比和自主可控原则,构建HEFA和G+FT两条技术路径的全生命周期碳减排模型,预测了2025-2060年中国民航SAF的减排量和减排成本。研究发现,以废弃油脂为原料的HEFA路线和以农业废弃物、林业废弃物、城市固体废弃物为原料的FT路线相比于传统航空煤油减少的碳排放量、减排成本、减排贡献分别为61.3、66.4、65.9、68.4,84.4%、91.3%、90.7%、94.2%,0-1025.9、2307.2-4536.1、488.6-2179.4、327-1566.1 CNY/ton 。预计2060年中国民航SAF减排量大体在17177万吨-19819万吨。2025-2060年,可能情景下累计碳减排成本分别达到11063-45828亿元,边际碳减排成本为220-697CNY/ton。

    Abstract:

    Predicting the emission reduction costs and potential of sustainable aviation fuels that are in line with China"s national conditions is crucial for promoting the development of the SAF industry and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Based on the principles of international comparability and independent controllability, a full lifecycle carbon reduction model for HEFA and G+FT technology paths was constructed, and the emission reduction amount and cost of China"s civil aviation SAF from 2025 to 2060 were predicted. Research has found that the HEFA route using waste oil as raw material and the FT route using agricultural waste, forestry waste, and urban solid waste as raw materials reduce carbon emissions, emission reduction costs, and emission reduction contributions by 61.3, 66.4, 65.9, and 68.4 kg [CO] 2e/GJ, 84.4%, 91.3%, 90.7%, 94.2%, 0-1025.9, 2307.2-4536.1, 488.6-2179.4, 327-1566.1 CNY/ton [CO] 2e, respectively, compared to traditional aviation kerosene. It is expected that the SAF emissions reduction of China"s civil aviation industry will be approximately 171.77 million tons to 198.19 million tons by 2060. From 2025 to 2060, the cumulative carbon reduction costs under possible scenarios will reach 1106.3-4582.8 billion yuan, with marginal carbon reduction costs ranging from 220-697CNY/ton.

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田利军. 基于HEFA-FT路线的可持续航空燃料 碳减排潜力与减排成本研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-24
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-23
  • 录用日期:2024-06-05
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