基于误差反馈修正的航班预计到达时刻预测
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中国民用航空局第二研究所

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V355

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国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFB2602405);国家科技计划项目配套资助(2024-YF06-00016-JH);成都市“揭榜挂帅”项目(2021-JB00-00025-GX)


Prediction of Estimated Time of Arrival Based on Correction with Error Feedback
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The Second Research Institute of the Civil Aviation Administration of China

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    摘要:

    精确估计航班预计到达时刻(ETA)对机场群或终端区协同调度辅助决策制定有重要意义 ,传统方法对于进场计量节点精细化感知能力不足,特别在高动态环境影响下对大体量复杂航班交通态势难以实现中-长期精准定量估计。文章提出基于误差反馈修正的航班预计到达时刻预测方法,首先,基于航空器性能参数,结合对未飞航路的规划和气象因素,构建航空器运动学模型;其次,通过四维航迹推演对预计到达时刻进行初步预测;然后,构造实际落地时刻(ATA)与预测结果的误差序列,采用误差反馈模型对序列进行预测并修正初步预测结果。最后,以某大型枢纽机场进港航班为例进行仿真验证,将提前30分钟预测结果在±5分钟以内的比率作为评价指标,结果表明相比传统方法,本方法可在恶劣天气下将预计到达时刻预测的准确率提高25%以上。

    Abstract:

    The problem of scheduling and collaborative decision-making in airport metroplex or terminal areas can be significantly approached by obtaining accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA). Traditional methods are short of the ability to fine-tune the arrival metering nodes. The accurate quantitative estimation of large-volume and complex flight traffic situations is hard to achieved especially under the influence of highly dynamic environments in a medium to long term. In this article, an ETA correction method based on error feedback is proposed. Based on the aircraft performance parameters, an aircraft kinematics model is firstly constructed combined with route planning and meteorological data, which is used to give a preliminary ETA prediction through the calculation of 4D trajectory then. After that an error sequence would be constructed by comparing the difference between the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA) and the predicted results, with it the next error could be predicted using the error feedback model and the results obtained previously would be corrected. Finally, the arrival flights to a large hub airport were taken as examples to conduct a simulation, in which the rate of error within ±5 minutes that predicted 30 minutes in advance was chosen as the evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the accuracy of ETA prediction can be improved by more than 25% in bad weather after corrected by the proposed method when compared with traditional means.

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文轶,夏朝禹,郭春波,等. 基于误差反馈修正的航班预计到达时刻预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-31
  • 录用日期:2024-06-05
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