基于组合赋权法-云模型的LNG化工厂安全评价
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.武汉科技大学;2.湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

X913.4

基金项目:

湖北省重点研发计划项目(2021BCA151, 2022BCA085 & 2022BEC004)


Safety evaluation of LNG chemical plants based on combination weighting method and cloud model
Author:
Affiliation:

Wuhan University of Science and Technology

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    针对液化天然气(liquefied natural gas, LNG)化工厂安全评价中存在模糊性、随机性等问题,论文提出了一种基于正态云模型的风险评估方法,该方法基于本质安全化选取评价指标,并通过专家评判量化事故可能性和严重度。通过结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)和CRITIC赋权法(criteria importance through intercriteria correlation, CRITIC)确定各指标权重,利用正向云发生器柔化风险矩阵阈值,并通过逆向云发生器优化评价结果,从而得出云特征数字,并生成对应的二维云图。通过将实际云图与标准云图进行对比,确定各评价指标风险等级。以某企业LNG化工厂为实例,结果表明:该模型有效融合了专家意见,保留了评估结果的随机性和模糊性,实现了风险评价结果可视化,为LNG化工厂安全管理提供了一种新的风险评估工具。

    Abstract:

    To address the fuzziness and randomness in safety evaluations of liquefied natural gas (LNG) chemical plants, a novel risk assessment method is proposed based on the normal cloud model. This proposed method is based on the selection of evaluation indicators from the perspective of intrinsic safety, which is used to evaluate the severity and likelihood of accidents through expert judgment. The weights of the indicators were determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC). The risk matrix thresholds were softened using a forward cloud generator, and the evaluation results were optimized through a backward cloud generator to obtain cloud characteristic numbers and generate corresponding two-dimensional cloud maps. By comparing the actual cloud map with the standard cloud map, the risk levels of the evaluation indicators were determined. The results show that the model effectively integrates the expert opinions with aims of retaining the randomness and fuzziness, and providing the visualizes the risk assessment results. The novel method also provides a new risk assessment tool for the safety management of LNG chemical plants.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

苏晓娅,秦林波,韩军,等. 基于组合赋权法-云模型的LNG化工厂安全评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-05
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-05
  • 录用日期:2024-07-09
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
×
亟待确认版面费归属稿件,敬请作者关注
《科学技术与工程》入选维普《中文科技期刊数据库》自然科学类期刊月度下载排行榜TOP10