山地城市生态安全评价及多情景格局预测:以重庆市为例
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1.重庆交通大学;2.重庆交通大学 智慧城市学院 重庆 402260

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中图分类号:

X820.4

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Ecological security assessment and multi-scenario pattern prediction of mountain cities: A case study of Chongqing
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Chongqing Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    土地生态安全是土地资源持续利用的核心,由人类活动造成的土地利用变化改变生态系统结构与功能,对区域生态安全系统产生严重影响。为探究近年来重庆市及2030年生态安全变化情况,本文以重庆市为研究对象,采用PLUS模型模拟2030年自然发展、生态优先、发展优先情景下土地利用变化。基于生态学角度构建生态安全评价指标体系,并结合突变模型对生态安全指标体系进行集成,计算各年份生态安全评价指数,得到2000-2020年重庆市生态安全处于一般安全等级以上面积占比呈“增加-降低-增加-减少”趋势。同时三种情景下处于在相对安全及以上占64.53%、67.31%、55.97%。结果显示重庆市生态安全空间格局与人口密度、GDP等空间格局相反,与植被覆盖、坡度等自然数据空间格局相符,间接表明人类活动对生态安全格局的影响,人类活动越密切,生态安全等级越不安全。

    Abstract:

    Land ecological security is the core of sustainable use of land resources, and land use change caused by human activities changes the structure and function of ecosystems, which has a serious impact on the regional ecological security system. In order to explore the changes of ecological security in Chongqing in recent years and 2030, this paper takes Chongqing as the research object and uses the PLUS model to simulate land use changes under the scenarios of natural development, ecological priority and development priority in 2030. Based on the P-S-R model, the ecological security evaluation index system was constructed, the index integration was carried out in combination with the mutation model, and the ecological security evaluation index of each year was calculated, and the proportion of ecological security above the general safety level in Chongqing from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of "increase-decrease-increase-decrease". At the same time, the proportion of general safety level or above in the three scenarios was 85.25%, 89.88%, and 89.68%. The results show that the spatial pattern of ecological security in Chongqing is opposite to the spatial pattern of population density and GDP, and is consistent with the spatial pattern of natural data such as vegetation cover and slope, which indirectly indicates the impact of human activities on the ecological security pattern.

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沈祺林,牟凤云,朱诗柔,等. 山地城市生态安全评价及多情景格局预测:以重庆市为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-31
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-14
  • 录用日期:2024-07-09
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