基于时序LSTM-MLP模型的输电线路非平稳型覆冰厚度预测
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TM755

基金项目:

国家电网公司华中分部科技项目(52140023000A)


Icing thickness prediction of transmission lines considering non-stationary series with sequential LSTM-MLP model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    在“两微”环境中,电力系统中输电线路受到严重覆冰的威胁,对电网运行的稳定性构成潜在风险。为提高事前预警运维效率,本研究以经典输电线路的覆冰厚度监测时间序列为研究对象,创新地提出多变量长短期记忆-多层感知机(Long Short-term Memory- Multilayer Perceptron, LSTM-MLP)模型,旨在建立合理可靠的覆冰厚度预测方法,以更好地捕捉输电线路覆冰监测数据的大范围波动。为此,本文使用LSTM-MLP模型分别对不同数据容量的导线运维数据进行预测并对比分析。模型使用导线覆冰量的时间序列数据对覆冰厚度进行预测,并引入温度、湿度、风力等多种覆冰控制因素提升模型在波动数据上的预测能力。为进一步提升模型性能,引入灰狼算法对模型超参数进行优化处理。结果显示:优化后的多变量LSTM-MLP模型对12个测试数据地覆冰厚度预测具有较低的均方根误差(Root mean square error, RMSE)、平均绝对误差值(Mean absolute error, MAE)和较高的决定系数(R2),分别为1.0765、0.7455和0.8893。对30个测试数据的预测结果,RMSE、MAE和R2分别为0.8814、0.5238和0.9315。这一系列结果相对于单变量LSTM-MLP模型更接近实际监测值,从而验证了多变量LSTM-MLP模型的高精度和可靠性。综上所述,多变量LSTM-MLP模型能够较好地捕捉输电线路覆冰数据的波动性,为非平稳型覆冰厚度的预测和预警提供了一种创新且高效的解决方案。

    Abstract:

    In the "two micro" environment, the transmission lines in the power system are threatened by serious ice, which poses a potential risk to the stability of the power grid operation. In order to improve the efficiency of pre-warning operation and maintenance, an innovative Long Short-term Memory-Multilayer Perceptron (LSTM-MLP) model based on the monitoring time series of ice cover thickness of classical transmission lines was proposed. This paper aims to establish a reasonable and reliable ice thickness prediction method to better capture the wide range fluctuation of ice monitoring data of transmission lines. For this reason, the LSTM-MLP model was used to predict and compare the wire operation and maintenance data of different data capacities. The time series data of the ice-covering amount of the conductor was used to predict the ice-covering thickness. Various ice-controlling factors such as temperature, humidity and wind power were introduced to improve the prediction ability of the model on the fluctuation data. In order to further improve the performance of the model, Grey Wolf algorithm was utilized to optimize the model hyperparameters. The results demonstrate that the optimized multivariable LSTM-MLP model has lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and higher coefficient of determination (R2) for predicting ground ice thickness of 12 test datasets, which were 1.0765, 0.7455 and 0.8893 respectively. For the predicted results of 30 test datasets, RMSE, MAE and R2 were 0.8814, 0.5238 and 0.9315, respectively. These results indicated closer proximity to the actual monitoring values than the univariate LSTM-MLP model, thus verifying the high accuracy and reliability of the multivariable LSTM-MLP model. In summary, the multivariable LSTM-MLP model effectively capture the fluctuation of transmission line ice cover data, and provides an innovative solution for accurately predicting non-stationary ice cover thickness.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

苏仁斌,熊卫红,刘先珊,等. 基于时序LSTM-MLP模型的输电线路非平稳型覆冰厚度预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(36): 15483-15496.
Su Renbin, Xiong Weihong, Liu Xianshan, et al. Icing thickness prediction of transmission lines considering non-stationary series with sequential LSTM-MLP model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2024,24(36):15483-15496.

复制
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-15
  • 录用日期:2024-04-25
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-02
  • 出版日期:
×
2026年会通知 | “技术经济学驱动智能经济生态构建与治理变革”——中国技术经济学会第三十三届学术年会(2026)会议通知暨征文启事(第一轮)
亟待确认版面费归属稿件,敬请作者关注