土地利用格局对行人交通事故严重程度的非线性影响 ——基于极致梯度提升决策树的研究
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重庆交通大学

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U491.3

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国家自然科学基金(42071218)


The nonlinear effect of land use patterns on the severity of pedestrian accidents ——based on extreme gradient boosting decision tree approach
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Chongqing Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    土地利用与出行安全的研究是城市研究和交通运输领域共同关注的热点,但目前关于土地利用对交通事故的影响研究多纳入建成环境统一框架,并多采用土地利用混合度或土地利用类型占比来衡量,缺乏对土地利用类型的细化研究。本文基于重庆市渝中区2010-2021年行人交通事故数据和POI数据,采用极限梯度提升决策树(XGBoost)模型,结合道路条件、道路环境,探讨事故点缓冲区内土地利用格局与行人交通事故严重程度的关系。结果表明,土地利用格局对行人交通事故严重程度有重要作用,其中影响较大的要素分别是医院、住宅和教育用地。通过SHAP归因分析,事故点缓冲区300米内存在医院、居民小区以及教育用地对事故严重程度有降低作用。本研究有助于丰富土地利用与行人交通事故关系的研究,对优化土地利用格局、完善建成环境、降低行人交通事故伤害严重程度有借鉴意义。

    Abstract:

    The research on land use and travel safety is a hot topic of common concern in the fields of geography and transportation. However, currently, research on the impact of land use on traffic accidents is mostly included in the unified framework of the built environment, often measured by the degree of land use mixing or the proportion of land use types, lacking detailed research on land use types. This article is based on pedestrian traffic accident data and POI data from Yuzhong District, Chongqing from 2010 to 2021. Using the Extreme Gradient Enhancement Decision Tree (XGBoost) model, combined with road conditions and road environment, the relationship between land use pattern in the accident buffer zone and the severity of pedestrian traffic accidents is explored. The results indicate that the land use pattern plays an important role in the severity of pedestrian walking accidents, with the most influential factors being hospitals, residential areas, and educational land. Through SHAP attribution analysis, it was found that the presence of curves and ramps can increase the severity of traffic accidents, while the presence of hospitals, residential areas, and educational land within 300 meters of the accident buffer zone can reduce the severity of accidents. This study helps to enrich the research on the relationship between land use and pedestrian traffic accidents, and has reference significance for optimizing land use, improving the built environment and reducing the severity of pedestrian traffic accidents.

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刘琪琪,陈春,匡新晖. 土地利用格局对行人交通事故严重程度的非线性影响 ——基于极致梯度提升决策树的研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-12
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-23
  • 录用日期:2024-06-05
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