基于GRA-GWO-LSTM的多元负荷协同预测方法
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TP183;TM715

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国家电网有限公司科技项目


Multi-energy Load Forecasting Method Based on GRA-GWO-LSTM
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    摘要:

    精准的多元负荷预测有助于综合能源系统的合理规划和优化运行。针对多元负荷预测时输入参数难确定和模型网络参数较难合理设置的问题,提出一种建筑电、冷、热多元负荷协同预测方法。首先,考虑到不同输入参数对多元负荷的影响,采用灰色关联度分析法(grey relation analysis, GRA)计算各输入参数与负荷间的相关性,选择灰色关联度大于0.6的参数作为模型输入;同时利用灰狼优化算法(grey wolf optimizer, GWO)对长短时记忆神经网络(long short-term memory, LSTM)中的关键网络参数进行优化,建立GRA-GWO-LSTM多元负荷预测模型;最后,以寒冷地区某校区为例,通过与单一神经网络模型和混合神经网络模型GWO-LSTM对比,所提预测模型在电、冷、热负荷长期预测上具有更高的预测精度,较LSTM模型和GWO-LSTM模型的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别降低了31.64%和23.47%,且其对短期负荷预测也具有良好预测性能,可用于指导综合能源系统的规划和智能化运行。

    Abstract:

    Accurate multi-component load forecasting is helpful to the rational planning and optimal operation of integrated energy systems. Aiming at the problems that input parameters are difficult to determine and model network parameters are difficult to set reasonably in multi-component load forecasting, a collaborative forecasting method of building electricity, cold and heat multi-load is proposed. Firstly, considering the influence of different input parameters on multiple loads, grey relational degree analysis (GRA) is used to calculate the correlation between input parameters and loads, and the parameters with grey correlation degree greater than 0.6 are selected as model inputs. At the same time, Grey Wolf optimization algorithm (GWO) is used to optimize the key network parameters of the short-time memory neural network (LSTM), and the multi-component load forecasting model of GRA-GWO-LSTM is established. Finally, taking a campus in a cold area as an example, compared with the single neural network model and the hybrid neural network model GWO-LSTM, the proposed prediction model has higher prediction accuracy in the long-term prediction of electric, cold and heat loads. Compared with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the LSTM model and the GWO-LSTM model, it is reduced by 31.64 % and 23.47 % respectively, and it also has good prediction performance for short-term load forecasting, which can be used to guide the planning and intelligent operation of the integrated energy system.

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李文,卜凡鹏,王坤,等. 基于GRA-GWO-LSTM的多元负荷协同预测方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(36): 15518-15525.
Li Wen, Bu Fanpeng, Wang Kun, et al. Multi-energy Load Forecasting Method Based on GRA-GWO-LSTM[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2024,24(36):15518-15525.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-07
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-17
  • 录用日期:2024-03-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-02
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