基于事故树的N-K模型施工事故风险耦合分析
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X947

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国家自然科学基金项目(青年项目)


Research on risk coupling of N-K integrated model horizontal directional drilling construction accident based on fault tree
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    摘要:

    为了研究水平定向钻施工事故风险,考虑事故树定性分析与N-K模型定量分析方法的缺点,从人为、设备、环境及管理4类风险因素构建了一种基于事故树的N-K施工事故风险分析综合模型。通过建立事故树施工底层事件与N-K模型耦合风险因素集合映射关系,分别计算单因素、双因素以及多因素耦合风险概率,求解风险耦合值。结果表明:水平定向钻施工事故风险概率随着风险耦合因素的增加而增大;三因素耦合作用时,设备-环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.2608,人为-设备-管理次之为0.2034;双因素耦合作用时,环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.1554;水平定向钻施工事故共有50种引发事故的可能途径,可以按照准备阶段、导向孔钻进阶段、扩孔阶段、管道回拖阶段与规划管理阶段对整体事故风险进行分阶段预防。研究成果一方面可为风险研究提供新的综合模型,另一方面也可为水平定向钻安全施工提供重要的参考依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the accident risk of horizontal directional drilling construction,considering the shortcomings of fault tree qualitative analysis and N-K model quantitative analysis method, a comprehensive model of construction risk analysis combining N-K and fault tree is constructed from four risk factors of human, equipment, environment and management. By establishing the mapping relationship between the bottom event of fault tree construction and the coupling risk factor set of N-K model, the single-factor, double-factor and multi-factor coupling risk probabilities are calculated respectively, the risk coupling value is solved. The results show that the risk probability of horizontal directional drilling construction accidents increases with the increase of risk coupling factors; when the three factors are coupled, the maximum value of equipment-environment-management coupling is 0.2608, followed by man-equipment-management is 0.2034; when the two factors are coupled, the maximum value of the environment-management coupling effect is 0.1554; there are 50 possible ways to cause accidents in horizontal directional drilling construction accidents and the overall accident risk can be prevented in stages according to the preparation stage, the guide hole drilling stage, the reaming stage, the pipeline pullback stage and the planning management stage. On the one hand, the research results can provide a new comprehensive model for risk research, on the other hand, it can also provide an important reference for the safe construction of horizontal directional drilling.The research results can provide an important reference for the safe construction of horizontal directional drilling.

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蒋富强,黎景雄,赵晨松,等. 基于事故树的N-K模型施工事故风险耦合分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(28): 12391-12398.
Jiang Fuqiang, Li Jingxiong, Zhao Chensong, et al. Research on risk coupling of N-K integrated model horizontal directional drilling construction accident based on fault tree[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2024,24(28):12391-12398.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-21
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-11
  • 录用日期:2024-03-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-05
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