Abstract:The quality of prefabricated building construction directly affects the safety and durability of prefabricated construction, with the goal of improving the quality management level of prefabricated construction, a risk evaluation model based on the fault tree-fuzzy Bayesian network method is proposed for how to effectively control the construction quality risk. Risk sources are identified and classified by combining the characteristics of prefabricated construction, the causal relationship of risk factors is modeled by using fault tree, which is mapped into a Bayesian network, fuzzy set theory and the improved similar aggregation method are introduced, and the expert opinion is transformed into the a priori probability and conditional probability of node events, and the quality risk analysis model of prefabricated construction based on fault tree-fuzzy Bayesian network is constructed. Combined with the case study: the collected data were imported into GeNIe software, parameter learning was performed to obtain the occurrence probability of each risk level; the a posteriori probability was obtained by reverse inference to determine the critical factors, and the causal analysis was performed to obtain the maximum probable causal chain, and finally, the fast prediction and inference were performed by utilizing the fast prediction function of Bayesian network.