太湖流域近二十年生态环境状况变化特征及驱动因素分析
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1.江苏省气候中心;2.南京气象科技创新研究院;3.江苏省气象服务中心;4.江苏省环境监测中心

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X171.1

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国家自然科学(U2242211);江苏省气象科研重点项目(KZ202003)


Analysis on the Change Characteristics and Driving Factors of Eco-environment Status in Taihu Lake Basin in Recent 20 Years
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1.Jiangsu Climate Center,Nanjing,;2.China;3.Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing,;4.Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center,Nanjing,;5.Jiangsu Environmental Monitoring Center,Nanjing,;6.Jiangsu Climate Center,Nanjing;7.Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing;8.Jiangsu Environmental Monitoring Center,Nanjing

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    摘要:

    陆地生态环境状况的量化监测和评估有助于理解生态系统的变化及其驱动因素,对政府指导区域生态环境管理,实现生态保护和社会经济协同发展具有重要意义。本研究基于长时序多源卫星遥感数据,利用协方差主成分分析法耦合绿度、热度、湿度、干度和空气污染度5个指标,构建了陆地生态环境状况指数评价模型(Land Eco-environment Status Index,LESI),采用Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)检验、Biplot双标图、相关分析和交叉验证等4种策略证明了该模型具有良好的平稳性、合理性、综合代表性和区域适应性;在此基础上评估了2001-2021年太湖流域生态环境状况(Land Eco-environment Status, LES)时空特征和演变规律,探讨了LES变化的驱动因素,量化了气候变化和人类活动的贡献,结果表明:(1)太湖流域生态环境质量呈先下降后平稳的态势,年均LESI从2001年的0.639显著下降至2009年的0.523(-18.2%),随后趋于稳定;(2)太湖流域LESI时空变化差异明显,生态环境质量保持稳定或改善的区域(68.8%)明显大于下降的区域(31.2%),其中杭州和湖州生态环境质量最好,且保持稳定,上海和苏州相对偏差,且波动较大;(3)气温、降水和夜间灯光对LESI的贡献度分别为0.03、0.19和0.78,表明近20年太湖流域的生态环境变化主要受人类活动主导,而只有部分森林山区和湿地区域受气候变化影响。本研究建立的LESI模型可以有效的监测和定量评估生态环境状况的变化,为政府制定生态环境保护政策、促进高质量发展提供科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    The quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the terrestrial ecological environment status helps to understand the changes in ecosystems and their driving factors, and is of great significance for the government to guide regional ecological environment management, achieve ecological protection and socio-economic coordinated development. This study is based on long-term multi-source satellite remote sensing data, and utilizes covariance-based principal component analysis to couple five indicators: greenness, heat, wetness, dryness, and air pollution. A land eco-environment status index evaluation model (LESI) is constructed. Four strategies, including Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Biplot, correlation analysis, and cross validation, are used to demonstrate the good stationarity, rationality, comprehensive representativeness and regional adaptability. On this basis, the spatio-temporal characteristics and evolution patterns of the land eco-environment status (LES) in the the Taihu Lake Basin from 2001 to 2021 were assessed, the driving factors of LES changes were discussed, and the contributions of climate change and human activities were quantified. The results show that: (1) The eco-environment quality of the the Taihu Lake Basin is declining first and then stable. The average annual LESI decreases significantly from 0.639 in 2001 to 0.523 in 2009 (-18.2%), and then tends to be stable; (2) The spatial-temporal variation of LESI in Taihu Lake Basin is obviously different. The area where the ecological environment quality remains stable or improved (68.8%) is significantly larger than the area where the ecological environment quality is declining (31.2%), of which Hangzhou and Huzhou have the best eco-environment quality and remain stable. Shanghai and Suzhou are relatively poor and have significant fluctuations; (3) The contributions of temperature, precipitation and night light to LESI are 0.03, 0.19 and 0.78, respectively, indicating that the eco-environment changes in the the Taihu Lake basin in recent 21 years are mainly dominated by human activities, while only some forest mountain areas and wetland areas are affected by climate change. The LESI model established in this study can effectively monitor and quantitatively evaluate changes in the eco-environment, providing scientific support for the government to formulate ecological environment protection policies and promote high-quality development.

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杭鑫,朱士华,李心怡,等. 太湖流域近二十年生态环境状况变化特征及驱动因素分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-13
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-24
  • 录用日期:2024-06-05
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