基于CEEMD的云贵高原降水量序列周期性特征识别
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1.贵州大学;2.贵州大学矿业学院;3.西安中科星云空间信息研究院有限公司;4.西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院

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P426.612

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Periodic Characteristics Identification of Precipitation Sequences on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on CEEMD
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Guizhou University

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    摘要:

    :对云贵高原的降水量序列进行多尺度分析,可为喀斯特地区流域的综合治理、水资源的合理利用及地区的可持续发展提供保证。利用CEEMD算法结合快速傅里叶变换FFT分析的特征提取方法。选取云贵高原60个站点20a、时间间隔为12h的降水量观测数据,对云贵高原降水量序列进行周期识别。研究表明:(1)CEEMD算法能够有效提取序列中的月、半周年、1周年等特征分量;(2)利用连续均方根对凯里和昆明站分量进行筛选,确定筛选出的分量与原始数据拟合程度良好,拟合度R2为0.61245和0.70789;(3)结合各气象站点位置,发现地理位置上临近站点的周期变化趋势数相似。与云贵高原的柯本-盖革气候分类指数图相对比,符合该地区的气候特征。证明该分解方法可有效的应用于气候统计数据;(4)云贵高原48.3%站点IMF分量呈现双峰年周期,使用极端降水事件与热带气旋降水事件对比,发现云贵高原降水序列出现双峰值周期受热带气旋的影响。

    Abstract:

    : Conducting multi-scale analysis on the precipitation series of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau can provide assurance for the comprehensive management of the karst region"s watersheds, rational utilization of water resources, and sustainable development of the region. The feature extraction method utilized combines the CEEMD algorithm with Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis. Data from 60 sites across the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau were selected for analyzing the precipitation series to identify cyclical patterns. The study reveals that the CEEMD algorithm effectively extracts characteristic components from the series, such as monthly, semi-annual, and annual cycles. The Consecutive Mean Squared Error (CMSE) was utilized to filter components at Kaili and Kunming stations, ensuring a good fit of the selected components with the original data, with R2 values of 0.61245 and 0.70789 respectively. By combining the positions of various meteorological stations, it was found that geographically adjacent stations exhibit similar cyclical trend numbers. When compared with the K?ppen-Geiger climate classification map of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, the findings align with the climatic characteristics of the region, validating that this decomposition method can be effectively applied to climatic statistical data. Moreover, 48.3% of the sites on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau exhibit a bi-modal annual cycle in IMF components. By comparing extreme precipitation events with tropical cyclone precipitation events, it was discovered that the bi-modal peak cycle in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau precipitation series is influenced by tropical cyclones.

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郝海宁,王新鹏,袁荣才,等. 基于CEEMD的云贵高原降水量序列周期性特征识别[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-12
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-23
  • 录用日期:2024-05-29
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