The collaborative design and manufacturing between suppliers in the development process of complex product systems is highly complex, which is interacted and transmitted through the collaborative relationships between suppliers. Building a supplier hierarchical network for complex product systems, considering the interaction between supplier risk accumulation and timely risk response. By introducing network calculus theory in the communication field and characterizing risk characteristics based on backlog and delay performance indicators, the uncertain supplier risk quantification problem is transformed into a worst-case boundary evaluation problem. Taking the aviation complex product system as an example, identifying the key risks faced by suppliers in the collaborative development process and determining their worst-case risk boundary can provide a reference basis for risk management of complex product system suppliers.