基于高度冲突专家意见融合的水利工程应急决策
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三峡大学水利与环境学院

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TV513+X928.03

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国家重点研发计划资助项目项目(2017YFC0805100)


Emergency Decision Making in Hydraulic Engineering Based on Highly Conflicting Expert Opinions Fusion
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1.College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University;2.China Three Gorges University,College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,

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    摘要:

    为解决D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论无法有效集结高冲突专家意见对水利工程应急决策结果的影响,提出了基于Lance距离和信息熵改进D-S证据理论的水利工程应急决策中的专家意见融合方法。首先,利用改进的直觉模糊熵计算属性权重,充分考虑了决策信息的模糊性,得到各专家对方案的Mass函数;然后,使用Lance距离衡量任意两个专家之间的冲突和差异性得到评价证据的可信度,使用信息熵描述专家决策时的随机性问题得到评价证据的不确定度,并将二者折扣处理后得到专家综合权重,保证修正权重的准确合理;最后使用D-S证据组合规则计算修正后各专家对方案的Mass函数,得到最终决策结果。通过实例分析及方法对比验证了模型的有效性,结果表明,提出的方法可以有效集结高度冲突专家意见,与其他方法相比融合结果精度更高,考虑问题更为科学有效,可为水利工程应急决策提供依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem of the inability of D-S (Dempster-Shafer) evidence theory to effectively assemble high-conflict expert opinions on the emergency decision-making results of hydraulic engineering, an expert opinion fusion method in emergency decision-making of hydraulic engineering based on Lance distance and information entropy improved D-S evidence theory is proposed. First, the improved intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to calculate attribute weights, fully considering the fuzziness of decision-making information, which resulted in Mass functions for each expert regarding the proposed solutions; then, the credibility of the evaluation evidence is obtained by using Lance distance to measure the conflict and discrepancy between any two experts, and the uncertainty of the evaluation evidence is obtained by using information entropy to describe the problem of randomness in expert decision making, and discount the two to obtain the expert's comprehensive weight to ensure that the revised weight is accurate and reasonable; finally, the D-S evidence combination rule is utilized to compute the Mass functions of experts' revised opinions on the solutions,, ultimately providing the final decision outcome. The effectiveness of the model is verified through case analysis and method comparison. The results show that the proposed method can effectively assemble highly conflicting expert opinions. Compared with other methods, the fusion results are more accurate and the problem considerations are more scientific and effective, which can provide a basis for emergency decision-making in hydraulic engineering.

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孙开畅,李婷婷. 基于高度冲突专家意见融合的水利工程应急决策[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-26
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-10
  • 录用日期:2023-11-14
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