Because of the special properties of frozen soil in alpine region, it is easy to lead to the destruction of overlying strata with seasonal changes after mining. Therefore, in order to accurately predict the development trend of dynamic subsidence of overlying strata in mining area in alpine region, this paper selects the surface water-rich area in alpine mining area as the research object. Based on the idea of Weibull time function and piecewise function, combined with the surface InSAR monitoring data of mining area, the surface dynamic subsidence model of alpine mining area is established, and the applicability of the function model is discussed. The results show that the relationship curve between subsidence and time in the three stages of frost heave surface subsidence in alpine mining area is consistent with the corresponding curve of Weibull time function model. The two-parameter values of Weibull time function are discussed and optimized. Finally, it is determined that the error is? within the scope of application when the λ value is 2.5, the η value is 0.068in the initial and acceleration stages, the λ value is 2.3, and the η value is 0.048 in the stable stage. It is in the range of tolerance and can accurately simulate and predict the dynamic settlement process of the surface. This study can provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation and treatment projects in alpine mining areas.