Based on the MODIS_NDVI and meteorological data from 2011 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution, change characteristics and future change trends of vegetation cover in Kunming in the past ten years were analyzed by using trend analysis, coefficient of variation method, Hurst index, partial correlation analysis method and cartographic spatial analysis. The results showed that: (1) In the past 10 years, the vegetation cover in Kunming City was good and showed an increasing trend, with a growth rate of 3.6%/10a. (2) Areas with high vegetation coverage (NDVI>0.6) in Kunming accounted for 92.45% of the entire Kunming City, and the overall vegetation coverage was good, and NDVI was more likely to have low values at low altitudes. The area of the city's NDVI less than 0.6 is mainly concentrated in the southwest. (3) About 71.44% of the area of Kunming City has been improved in the past decade, which is much larger than the degraded area, which may benefit from the afforestation project in recent years. (4) There are significant spatial differences in the fluctuation characteristics of vegetation change in the study area, and the regional economic development with large fluctuations is rapid, and the human impact is large, mostly urban land, traffic arteries and cultivated land. Areas with low fluctuations are mainly forested areas. (5) From the perspective of future trends, vegetation coverage accounts for 19.64% of benign development, malignant development accounts for 22.40%, and basically unchanged about 57.96%, of which Songming County, Kunming Municipal District, Chenggong County, Yiliang County and Shilin Yi Autonomous County need attention. (6) Due to the overall abundant sunshine in Kunming, rainfall can affect vegetation cover more than temperature, and afforestation projects in the past decade have made great contributions to improving vegetation.