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王小伦,刘雁,张玉,等. 基于CA-Markov模型的吉林省西部土地利用/覆被变化研究及预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(19): 7942-7948.
Wang Xiaolun,Liu Yan,Zhang Yu,et al.Exploration and Prediction of Land Use / Cover Change in Western Jilin Province Based on Ca-Markov Model[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(19):7942-7948.
基于CA-Markov模型的吉林省西部土地利用/覆被变化研究及预测
Exploration and Prediction of Land Use / Cover Change in Western Jilin Province Based on Ca-Markov Model
投稿时间:2020-11-03  修订日期:2021-07-03
DOI:
中文关键词:  吉林省西部  土地利用/覆被  LUCC  CA-Markov模型
英文关键词:western Jilin province  land use/cover  LUCC  CA-Markov model
基金项目:吉林省教育厅“十三五”科学技术项目(JJKH20180764KJ)
           
作者单位
王小伦 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院
刘雁 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院
张玉 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院
刘吉平 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院
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中文摘要:
      为探明吉林省西部土地资源利用的状况与问题,基于Globalland30数据集,运用GIS分析2000年、2010年与2020年的各地类的分布与变化,并运用CA-Markov模型,预测2030年土地格局的变化趋势,结果表明:近20年内,耕地是主要地类,面积占比最大并持续增加。草地面积占比第二。其他地类面积较小,分布相对集中;在2000年-2010年间,研究区LUCC总体比较稳定,裸地增加和草地减少是该时段LUCC的显著特征,其他地类面积变化不明显。在2010年-2020年间,LUCC变得活跃,耕地增加与草地进一步减少是该时段LUCC的显著特征,人造地表面积继续保持增长,林地、草地与湿地面积进一步减少;根据预测,在2020-2030年间,吉林省西部生态状况改善,城镇将进一步扩张,耕地数量变化趋于稳定,空间变化依旧活跃。
英文摘要:
      In order to explore the situation and problems of land resources utilization in the west of Jilin Province. Based on the globaland30 data set, GIS was used to analyze the distribution and change of each category in 2000, 2010 and 2020. And the CA-Markov model was used to predict the change trend of land pattern in 2030. The results are as follows: In the past 20 years, cultivated land is the main land type, with the largest proportion and increasing continuously. Grassland area accounted for the second. The area of other land types is small and their distribution is concentrated. From 2000 to 2010, in the study area, LUCC was generally stable. The increase of bare land and the decrease of grassland were the significant characteristics of LUCC, while the area of other land types did not change significantly. From 2010 to 2020, LUCC becomes active. The increase of cultivated land and the further decrease of grassland are the significant characteristics of LUCC. The area of man-made land continues to increase, while the area of woodland, grassland and wetland further decreases. According to the forecast, from 2020 to 2030, in the western part of Jilin Province, the ecological situation will be improved, the cities and towns will be further expanded, the quantity of cultivated land will be stable, and the spatial change will still be active.
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