考虑新能源不确定性多场景下互联电网停电风险评估
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山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院

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TM 732

基金项目:

国家电网公司2018年科技项目(基于多沙堆理论的互联电网停电事故预警技术及系统研发)


Assessment of Power Failure Risk in Interconnected Power Grid under Multi-scenario Considering New Energy Uncertainty
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College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology

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Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Interconnected power grid blackouts forewarning and system research and development based on Multi-sand pile theory)

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    摘要:

    为了探究新能源出力不确定性对电网停电事故的影响以及互联电网中新能源接入节点的选择,提出了一种非时序蒙特卡洛停电事故演化模型和分场景研究新能源接入互联电网停电风险评估的方法。首先,对风电、光伏发电出力的不确定性建模;然后,通过非时序蒙特卡洛法得到新能源的出力,结合SOC-Power Failure模型形成停电事故演化模型;最后,利用该模型分多场景对IEEE118电网做了停电事故演化仿真,通过AHP法综合LOLP、ELOL、EPFB指标得到了RISK值,并通过RISK值评估确定了新能源最佳接入场景,验证了模型的可行性及分场景仿真方法的实用性。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the impact of new energy uncertainty on power failure and the choice of new energy buses in interconnected power grid, evolution model of non-sequential Monte-Carlo power failure is proposed. Assessment of power failure risk in interconnected power grid under multi-scenario is proposed to study the access of new energy. Firstly, modeling the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; Then, the non-sequential Monte-Carlo method is used to obtain the output of new energy, and a power failure evolution model is established based on SOC-Power Failure model. Finally, doing power failure evolution simulation in IEEE118 grid by this model in different scenario, the RISK value is obtained by integrating the LOLP, ELOL and EPFB indicators by AHP method, and the best access scenarios of new energy are determined by RISK value. The scenarios of new energy with the lowest power failure risk and the weak lines in the power grid are verified, which verifies the feasibility of the model and the practicability of the multi-scenario simulation.

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于群,范昌健,曹娜. 考虑新能源不确定性多场景下互联电网停电风险评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2019, 19(13): .
YU Qun, and. Assessment of Power Failure Risk in Interconnected Power Grid under Multi-scenario Considering New Energy Uncertainty[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2019,19(13).

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  • 收稿日期:2018-11-28
  • 最后修改日期:2019-03-11
  • 录用日期:2019-02-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2019-05-09
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